If you’re looking to go to graduate school in physics, why are you basing your application list on computer science?
With respect to your list I’d move all your matches up to reaches (with the possible exception of Cambridge about which I know too little about the admissions process but recommend you review this thread). Wisconsin & Maryland I’d move from likely to match. Your opinion about the Penn State options are probably correct.
What kind of college experience are you looking for? U. of Chicago is very different from Michigan which is very different from Cambridge. Apart from a top-ranked school for CS, what do you want? Large, medium, or smaller university? I’m assuming little Greek life based on your choices, but please correct me if I’m wrong. What about the importance of intercollegiate athletics? Are there majors particular extracurriculars you’re interested in pursuing? A preferred distance from home (whether hours of flight, hours of driving, etc)? Rural, suburban, or urban?
If I had to guess, this is where I’d place your schools.
Extremely Likely (90+% chance)
Penn State
Likely (60-90% chance)
- Penn State Schreyers Honors
Possible (25-55% chance)
- UW Madison
- U. Maryland
Unlikely (less than 25% chance)
- UCLA
- Cornell
- U. Chicago
- UC Berkeley
- MIT
- U. Michigan
- UT Austin
- GA Tech
- UIUC
- Cambridge?
For computer science programs where you would be extremely likely to receive admission, I’d take a look at this list of good CS schools for “B” students (meaning that you’re 90+% assured of getting in). UT – Dallas, Stony Brook, and U. of Massachusetts are two that are on the list for “B” students and on the regular list of strong CS schools.
There’s also this list of strong CS programs at smaller schools. If you have MIT on your list (smaller university, tech-focused) then you might like Rose-Hulman, which I think would be a Likely for you, and it would probably give you sufficient merit aid to easily come in at the $200k mark.
I’ll refrain from adding more suggestions until we get a better sense of what exactly you’re interested in from your college experience.
ETA: All those schools are unlikely because they’re unlikely for anyone. Most applicants self-select, meaning that they only apply if they think they have a decent shot of acceptance. So lots of highly qualified students apply, but the university will only end up taking a small percentage of them.