I think your kids stand excellent chances of getting into a school on their lists, but I also think every student should have a few schools where it is very likely to get in — bonus points if they are very affordable, too.
I know my own kid has grown to love schools that accepted her early. She has received scholarships and admission to honors colleges and special programs while waiting to hear from other schools that are possible, but not likely admits for anyone.
As she has visited the schools that already accepted her, her vision of what she wants has evolved. She’s like your child who wants to be among friendly students and not a cut-throat atmosphere and she’s finding her “people” in unexpected places. The schools she has grown more fond of are not necessarily the highest ranked overall, but she sees opportunities to participate in extracurricular activities with less competition while still getting rigorous academics in honors courses and other programs designed for high-achieving students.
She is close to deciding without even waiting for decisions from the less likely to admit schools on her list. And the school now at the top of her list started at the bottom — sort of a “back up” add.
Students change so much that last year of high school. I always think it best to cover a range in school choices: bigger/smaller, public/private, different kinds of campuses and likelihood of admission, etc. It’s a fun adventure to consider all the possibilities. More fun than saying goodbye at the end, to me.
Good luck with the process!