@PhotographerMom: Pour another glass of Prosecco Sangria. I’ll take over for a bit.
No one can possibly answer either of those questions for any individual with any satisfaction as no one has that crystal ball. As mentioned a few hundred times upthread, it’s time to move on.
Anyone wondering if they should hold out hope for a spot off a WL needs to understand how they work. I will summarize:
- You were considered qualified, but there just aren't enough spots at that school for every qualified applicant.
- But, sometimes, a WL decision is a soft rejection given when the school has a reason to not want to offend a family (often legacy/donor) with an outright rejection.
- WLs aren't ranked and they are there to benefit the schools, not you. The WL is a pool of applicants whose profiles closely match those of the students who were offered admission. They exist for the schools to fill the holes left by those who choose not to matriculate. Because you can never know what those holes are (male/female, day/border, instate/out-of-state, athlete/sport, etc.), you can never know your chances of coming off a waitlist.
- A WL could be 500 deep and if you are the one who matches an empty hole, you'll get off it. A WL might be only 5 deep (they never are, but go with me here) and if you do not match an empty hole, you won't get off it. In either case, regardless of the size of the WL, you have zero ability to assess chances.
- One person declining to attend does not open up a corresponding spot on the WL. If a school has 100 spots to fill and sends out 120 offers of admission, only after the 21st person declines is there an empty spot. The better the school is at managing its yield, the slimmer the odds of any movement on the WL. That's why many schools never go to the WL at all and even end up a bit overenrolled (which means they will send out fewer offers the following year).
So, if you are fortunate to have an acceptance, take it, and don’t look back. Love the school that loves you. Consider a WL a rejection and move on. If you happen to be one of those who gets the call, you can deal with that news when it comes, but you should plan as if it will never come because, most likely, it won’t. But, if you DO decide to remain on a WL, #1952 says it all. Please (re)read it carefully.
@PhotographerMom, my glass is getting a bit low. Could you pass the Sangria?