1 win away from the Rose Bowl!

<p>! !</p>

<p>...Go Bears?</p>

<p>I'm disappointed...USC's loss means we no longer have hope for the Fiesta Bowl. Eh, at least I can start making plans for January 1st.</p>

<p>Cal never had a hope after the loss to Tenn. Besides, after Michigan and OSU (who'll play each other later this season), you've still got WVU, Florida, Louisville, Auburn and Texas who all have a better shot than anyone who plays in the Pac-10, even with a loss (except Louisville, who'll get knocked down hard if they lose a game).</p>

<p>Oh, and don't forget that Tennessee is still ranked higher than Cal, and is unlikely to lose to LSU. Arkansas, on the other hand...</p>

<p>Uh, I wouldn't say that Cal is only 1 win away from the Rose Bowl. Cal still has 4 Pac-10 games left, including the USC game. So, in theory, Cal could beat USC but still lose the other 3 games, and USC could win the rest of their PAC-10 games, and so then USC would still go to the Rose Bowl. Or some other combination of events might cause somebody else to win the Pac-10. For example, if UCLA beats Washington State today and then beats Cal next week, then UCLA becomes a contender for the Rose Bowl. </p>

<p>Note, I think that Cal does have an inside track to the Rose Bowl if Cal beats USC, as, if nothing else, CAl should at least win 1 of their remaining 3 games (as Stanford is pitifully bad this year). But the point is, there are still a lot of games left to be played.</p>

<p>Dranakin, Cal is ranked AHEAD of Tennessee in the only poll that matters now- the BCS poll. I would not say that Cal "never had a hope," considering there's still hope. In the computer rankings (which represents 1/3 of the BCS), we are currently ranked fifth (before USC loss, before OSU-Mich game, before Louisville-WV game, before SEC championship game). In the human polls, we are currently ranked 11th and 12th, which is really holding us back. However, a run through the Pac-10 (which Sagarin rates as the #1 conference in the country) would certainly turn the heads of pollsters after the last games on December 2.</p>

<p>As for the Rose Bowl, we aren't technically one win away from the Rose Bowl, but we do have an "inside track" as Sakky mentioned. We have four games left, UCLA, Arizona, USC, and Stanfurd. We must win at USC and win at least one more game (Stanfurd, duh); OR, if USC loses another conference game, then we can lose to SC and win out our other three games and still be headed for Pasadena.</p>

<p>Let's not look too far ahead, though. One game at a time. Beat the Bruins! Go Bears!</p>

<p>I know. For the last one, I just meant to show that Tennessee is still ahead of Cal in AP and USA Today.</p>

<p>But yeah, I think everyone would agree that after 1-2, this thing's gonna be open quite a bit, especially if Texas doesn't scrape out a win.</p>

<p>Fiesta Bowl? You mean the stand-alone Tostitos BCS Championship game...</p>

<p>Anyway, yes, USC's loss means we no longer have a chance at the national championship, but that's ok. If we get to the Rose Bowl that will be an immense accomplishment, and we're still far from reaching it. Don't think USC is a bad team now; they will be out there more enthused than ever knowing the Rose Bowl is on the line.</p>

<p>Why don't we have a chance at the national championship? I would think them losing puts us closer.</p>

<p>It's better to beat a higher ranked team.</p>

<p>Today's Daily News Headline story:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_4568978%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_4568978&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>It's a sad day is South Central.... :)</p>

<p>who would've expected USC to lose against Oregon State (while yet to have faced Oregon, Cal, ND, and UCLA)?</p>

<p>To say Cal is one in away from the RB is myopic and stupid. Cal better not be looking any further ahead than this Saturday against a UCLA team that was a pump fake away from beating Notre Dame in South Bend.</p>

<p>
[quote]
Why don't we have a chance at the national championship? I would think them losing puts us closer.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Actually, even if USC didn't lose, it'd take a series of unlikely events to happen for Cal to have any chance because there are just too many unbeaten teams in Big East and Big10 and none of them look vulunerable until they face off each other. I think Big East/Big 10 NC is very likely and there will be no controversy.</p>

<p>
[quote]
there are just too many unbeaten teams in Big East and Big10 and none of them look vulunerable until they face off each other.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>If USC had been #3 when we faced them, and we had won, and a few other games fell into place (not unlikely results), there would have been a significant chance we could have went to the championship game. Now that chance is significantly lower.</p>

<p>There aren't "too many" unbeaten teams. West Virginia or Louisville will soon have a loss, and neither team is ranked very high by the BSC computer compilation, while we are.</p>

<p>I think you confuse BCS with computer. The computer is just one of the components of BCS. <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/polls;_ylt=AoGehjvhFO.uGuqrQ4vQ1kUcvrYF?poll=4%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/polls;_ylt=AoGehjvhFO.uGuqrQ4vQ1kUcvrYF?poll=4&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Louisville, West Virginia, and Rutgers are all very much in the hunt before Cal. Rutgers is only 2 spots behind Cal in BCS at this point, but they can easily surpass Cal if they stay unbeaten after beating Louisville and UWV though I see Louisville/WV as more likely candidate to stay unbeaten. Anyway, you are talking about 3 unbeaten teams. You'd have to have them lose to each other so there's no unbeaten team left and that's not likely though possible of course. You seem to think a 1-loss Cal would somehow leap over any unbeaten team from the Big East. Well, look again, Cal is #10 in the BCS now while WV and Louisville is #3 and #5, already few spots higher than Cal; Rutgers is only 2 spots behind; all have 2 highly ranked teams left on their schedule while Cal would only have one (assuming USC hasn't lost). </p>

<p>Not to mention there are also quite a few 1-loss teams that are ahead of Cal at the moment.</p>

<p>I said the "BCS computer compilation," not the overall BCS ranking: your mistake, not mine. We are #3 in the computer compilation.</p>

<p>"Anyway, you are talking about 3 unbeaten teams. You'd have to have them lose to each other so there's no unbeaten team left and that's not likely though possible of course"</p>

<p>Louisville or West Virginia will be a one-loss after this coming Saturday; and Rutgers plays both Louisville and West Virginia ahead. Rutgers will certainly lose one of those games. It's very likely that all these teams will come out with one or more losses in the end, though it's more likely that West Virgina or Louisville will be undefeated.</p>

<p>I didn't say the chance is high--my point was the chance was much higher when USC was #3 and actually a fairly likely chance.</p>

<p>A NC for Cal is now in the hands of the voters. As g1a2b3e alluded to, we are currently #3 in the computers. Yeah, so what does that mean? It means that if we are in eighth place right now in both the coaches and harris polls (Tennessee currently occupies these positions) and have the exact number of votes that TN has, then we'd be in 5th place in the BCS. If we are in 7th place in the same polls I mentioned, we'd be 3rd in the BCS- behind Michigan and Ohio State. Either Ohio State or Michigan will end at #1 in the human polls, let's say the SEC champion, Big East undefeated, and a one-loss Texas Big 12 champion occupy #2-4, then we're likely #5 if we run the Pac-10... it doesn't take a series of unlikely events to give us a shot at the NC. As for USC at #3 being better for us, that's not necessarily true, at least in the eyes of the computers. In the eyes of pollsters, it might not be so bad since USC is still ahead of us. If the Trojans don't lose before they play us, then we'll undoubtedly jump several spots in the human polls by virtue of our playing a team ranked several positions ahead of us. </p>

<p>The media is not friendly to the Pac-10 conference, especially schools outside of USC. Don't let them have you believe that Cal is out of the NC picture, no matter how hard they're rooting for the SEC or Big East or Big 10 or just about any other conference east of the Rockies. Statistically, we have an outstanding chance.</p>

<p>You guys may be right but I think part of the mystery is we don't really know how the "computer" rank works. So even if Cal ends up #3 in computer and great things fall into place such that it ends up also #3 in human/harris poll (assuming the loser of Mich/Ohio State drops to #4 (but it may drop only 2 spots if it's a close game), I still think it'd be shut out of NC if there's one Big East team coming out unbeaten. I think what would happen is whoever stays unbeaten in the Big East will be #2 in harris poll and human poll and it's computer rank will jump a lot (#4) from where it is now because of 2 major wins over highly ranked teams during the end of the season. If you just look at the big picture, Big East as a whole is no weaker than Pac10 and it actually has more ranked teams in the top 15 right now.<br>
BCS would need to be really wacky to favor a 1-loss Pac10 team over an unbeaten Big East team. The bottom line is Cal needs those 3 Big East teams lose to each other.</p>

<p>Who needs the damn "Fiesta Bowl" in Tempe, AZ or wherever, when you can go to the Rose Bowl? Ideally, it will be Cal vs Ohio State or Michigan.</p>

<p>I made an error - the BCS National Championship and the Fiesta Bowl have the same sponsors, but the bowls are distinct from one another. Then again, I could care less.</p>