I am not an attorney. But in 1994 Congress passed the legislation regarding the exemption for antitrust violations and then in response 28 schools created the 568 Presidents Group (from @Mwfan1921’s quotes of the WSJ article).
Here is a graph from a Medium article showing inflation and the rise of COA from 1963 to 2017:
It appears as though in the mid-80s COA started to outpace inflation, and then around 2000 accelerated even more quickly. Considering the bureaucracy of large institutions, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to imagine that it took 5 years for the President 568 group to start to kick things up a notch and see what kind of increases they could get as pertaining to tuition.
Because although most students never apply, much less are accepted, to these 16 elite institutions it’s less a question about them in particular. It’s more that they tend to set the tuition/EFC standards, and then then hundreds of other colleges follow their lead. So if these 18 charged $30,000 COA in 1998 and then $40,000 in 2003 (and up and up) then other schools also started increasing their costs. They might not be matching the costs, but they went on the same upwards trajectory.
But this is about financial aid, people retort, not the sticker price. Well, when these institutions determine what someone is expected to pay, that is the EFC that other schools then tend to follow their model with. And if the EFC is increasing, then the costs to families are increasing. If we take the fictional family with a $100,000 income and $50,000 in savings, if the financial calculations indicate that a family can pay $20,000, then that should be $20,000 in 1998, 2002, 2010, or 2022. Thus if COA has gone from $30,000 to $80,000 that family should have gone from getting $10,000 in financial aid to $60,000 in financial aid. But that’s not what has happened, as far as I know (please let me know if I am wrong). The institutions have been agreeing on how to define that EFC which keeps inching (or jumping) the EFC higher.
To reuse my example from above, say in 2020 the 568 group said the $100k family could contribute $20k, $22k in 2021, and $23k in 2022, even if the family’s income and savings was static (which I do believe happens; again, please correct me if I am wrong). Thus the family has contributed an additional $5000 even if their financial picture remains the same. That is what the non-elite colleges then follow as their model as well. They may not be in the groups or have the exact financial formula, but they probably have a pretty good idea as to what’s being done. My hope would be that this would be the heart of the anti-trust matter, as part of an explanation as to why higher education costs have increased so much faster and higher than most other costs over the last 30 years.