2.9 GPA Chances?

<p>Good evening,
I am a 2nd Semester HS Junior from Southern California attending a Catholic college-preparatory high school. I currently have a 2.98 cumulative UC GPA, I haven't taken the SAT/ACT yet, but I scored 164 on the PSAT and 22 on the PLAN test. I did awfully in my Sophomore year, but I picked up the pace in my Junior year 1st semester and got a 3.48. I am not taking any AP courses, but I took a one-semester Honors class. I honestly did mess up much of my High School career, but I am intent on fixing as much as I can. Please don't tell me that I would do better in a community college, because I'm not planning on attending a CC. The sole reason my GPA and test scores were low is because I didn't put in 100%.I honestly didn't care at that point, but I wish I did. If I finish off this semester with a 3.5 GPA or so, raise my GPA to a 3.0, and take several AP courses next year, do I have a shot at being accepted into UC Merced? I am studying hard to score well on the SAT and ACT as well. My extracurriculars include volunteering well over one hundred hours serving the community, playing Lacrosse for the school team, team manager for football, being a part of the Mock Trial team and winning a best performance award, playing the piano since I was 5 years old, competing and placing highly in a US Air Force sponsored cyber defense competition, being a member of the robotics team for several years, working a secretarial part-time job, being fluent in the Aramaic/Assyrian language, taking school-required religion courses (non a-g), volunteer and active member at my church, and taking much needed care of my ill grandfather over the summer. I am also a first-generation US citizen and only my mother went to college here. I've been to UC Merced along with several other schools around the US. I honestly fell in love with UCM; it's the perfect match for me and I would do anything to be able to attend as a freshman. I am showing strong progression in my grades, and am a racial minority but not sure if URM.</p>

<p>The other Universities I am considering include:
CSUN
Cal Poly Pomona
Cal Lutheran
Biola
University of Nevada LV, Reno
The University of Arizona</p>

<p>Do I stand a chance, College Confidential? I appreciate any and all advice/input.
Thank you so much!</p>

<p>The good news is that UCM is very easy to get into; that being said your GPA is on the low end. I would study a great deal for the ACT, and if you get a 26 or higher you should be able to get in. With a 3.0 and 22 ACT I would rate your chances at 30%. Which a 26 ACT, I’d put it at around 70%. I know it’s shocking how much 4 points can do, but it does make a significant impact. CC is a viable option, its affordable and you always have the option of transferring after 2 years. </p>

<p>Thank you very much for the reply!
Also forgot to mention I got an honorable mention in a competition for the local DWP and received a scholarship. I am also working on being published in a professional journal.</p>

<p>My PLAN to ACT score is a 27, also.
I apologize for the disorder of my posts. </p>

<p>Bump</p>