<p>Class of 2013: 1094 enrolled
Class of 2014: 1138 enrolled
Class of 2015: 1113 enrolled
Class of 2016: 1098 enrolled
Class of 2017: 1093 accepted offers; College aiming at 1120-1125 enrolled</p>
<p>Those numbers don’t say “underenrollment” (2016) or “severe underenrollment” (2017) in my book, but your estimate of your odds is not far off. Good luck.</p>
<p>Class of 2016: 1098/1100-1110
Utilize a retention rate of 98% (actually 97.8%). The retention rate has almost been completely stable since 2008, I believe, with differences of only +/- .2%</p>
<p>Class of 2016 (as of next year, without transfers) has only 1076/1100-1110 students. </p>
<p>This implies space for 24-34 students to enroll. I was told by admissions that they would like 20-30 students to enroll. They generally accept exactly the amount of students they would like to go, so they may accept ~30 students again, with a working waitlist of 30 students. Of the 30, around 15-20 will decide to go. This leaves space for 4-14 students off of the 30 person waitlist. </p>
<p>The enrollment rate has been stable at 18, with the recent controversies serving as a negative. We can assume, then, a high end estimate of 18 students who will choose to go to Dartmouth (with the real number possibly being a couple students lower). </p>
<p>Therefore, the number of students who Dartmouth will take off of the waitlist, SEVERE aberrations aside, is probably at least 6. If you look at the transfer statistics numbers, it looks like the last time they took a good number of students, they accepted 8 off of the transfer waitlist. Generally it looks to be around 4-8, then.</p>
<p>I use underenroll and severely underenroll in context. For Dartmouth, 10 students under the target is underenrolled by definition, and 20 is severely so. No?</p>
<p>TL;DR: 4-8 students out of 30 are getting off the waitlist, if all goes according to trend.
thats a rate of 13-27%, with some more wiggle room at Dartmouth’s discretion for students they really like, if they want.</p>
<p>On top of that, of course, is the number of students who are going abroad, as well as the calculation of fall rush and students who won’t live in University housing anymore. The number shouldn’t be any higher, but the higher estimate of waitlist acceptees should be looked at. It is, essentially, the layout for the perfect storm.</p>
<p>freefly, </p>
<p>Your statistical analysis is giving me some hope haha</p>
<p>The waitlist is 60 people. 30 people is the average number of students that have stayed on the waitlist over the last few years, and it pretty much is a constant. </p>
<p>What do they look for? Well, first priority is probably given to the students who already had good first semester and midterm grades, as well as strong backgrounds (i.e. students without anything to prove, and who come from peer schools). These students probably get snapped up first, as there probably isn’t more than a couple of them. Then legacies, then students with connections to the school.</p>
<p>Students who received letters of recommendation from Dartmouth faculty are probably top of the list as well. After you look at all those, you should have your 6.
And 6 isn’t that hefty, I doubt Dartmouth cares about the number off of the waitlist. The number people see is the overall acceptance rate, which is going to be around 3% regardless of whether they take 2 kids off, or 10 kids off. They put so much effort into making such a small waitlist, as opposed to the huge waitlists other top schools use, so that they can take a good number from the list if necessary (I assume).</p>
<p>Also, final grades aren’t necessary if they haven’t come out. It’s not a big deal, some schools aren’t done, some don’t give final grades for a bit, and so on.</p>
<p>(in response to your old comment, "freefly,</p>
<p>What do you think they are looking for in waitlisted candidates, after looking your statistical analysis it seems like waitlisters have a decent shot this year…6 is a hefty number for a 30 person waitlist")</p>
<p>Does anyone know when we hear back? And if were rejected will they let us know?</p>
<p>You’ll know if you were rejected early June, at the earliest. They’ll send something out to everyone.</p>
<p>At this moment, they have started the process of looking through all ~30 applicants. No decisions will be reached until all have been reviewed by multiple people, and any decisions must be reached in a consensus. As such, I wouldn’t bet on hearing any positive info (for anyone) for a week, at least.</p>
<p>Did you receive any kind of confirmation/portal update confirming that you are on the wait list? I clicked yes on that form but beyond that no real confirmation.</p>
<p>Relax, paranoia is the least of your worries at this point (joke)
If you said yes, you’re on it. I also submitted an extra doc, and the director of AMES South Asia sent me a rec, both for which I received some sort of acknowledgement.</p>
<p>Im accepted and attending. I’m excited. There’s a Facebook group? What’s the name? I’m gonna be a 16 by the way.</p>
<p>@GoHard
I sent you the link to the facebook group. Also, good luck to everyone on the waitlist!! 
I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you</p>
<p>thanks. it looks like Dartmouth isn’t generating a very high retention ( only seen 6 kids going) do well see. they want to enroll 20-30, again.</p>
<p>Well not all the kids are on cc or know about the fb group</p>
<p>I included everyone who said they got in and will go, and no one who got accepted and well probably go elsewhere. we shall see, but as long as there’s a single spot open we all have a shot. and statistics show there will be a good few such spots.</p>
<p>@legokidswear Hey! Can you private message me the link for the facebook group for transfers. I’m accepted and going!</p>
<p>Can you also PM me the facebook group link?</p>
<p>How was everybody notified? Through the check your status system? I hadn’t heard from them, so I called the office today and they sent me an email to log into the system but the page is blank … any advice??</p>
<p>If you haven’t checked your admissions decision at all, the deadline has passed for accepting your offer. The decision portal has closed, and you can’t see your final decision anymore. </p>
<p>If you mean that you were wait listed, then don’t worry; they deleted the decision page for everyone and you will be directly contacted either way. It sounds like the admissions office thought that you wanted to see your original decision (acc, w/l, rej).</p>
<p>Or am I totally off base and they told you your waitlist decision is ready</p>
<p>It was regarding the original decision - apparently they had me listed under my old, expired high school email address from when I had applied before. Anyways, because of that, I hadn’t heard from them and now I’m able to log into the system but it’s just a blank screen :/</p>
<p>Do they generally send out something in the mail too for accepted students?</p>
<p>^^ Yes. A packet with letter signed by a human and lots of other stuff.</p>