<p>
</p>
<p>While it is state proportionate, I do not believe that it is based purely on PSAT scores. </p>
<p>This is what NMSC has to say about how the winners are selected (not very informative)</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>So I am going to assume that while PSAT scores matter, the selection committee does look at other factors like GPA, essay, recommendations, class rank etc. There is no point in assembling a team of counselors and admission officers if they are going to use a mechanical formula.</p>
<p>If you want to use a rule of thumb, about 1 out 6 get this award. So you could assume that you generally would need to in the top 15% or 20% of your state to be very competitive. Hence if you just made the cut off your chances may not be that high. Though off course if they use a holistic process, they cannot use a formula and have to evaluate each application on its own merits and hence students who just made the cut off should have their application reviewed.</p>