If she is a CA resident, the minimum UC GPA required to apply is 3.0. UC Merced is possible but it may depend upon her intended major. Around a 50/50 chance with her GPA and she is above the 25th percentile with her SAT. Still picking UCM or SDSU?
Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.00-3.39
UCSC: 14.3%
UCR: 22.9%
UCM: 56.7%
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:
UCSC: 1210-1450
UCR: 1130-1380
UCM: 1020-128