35 ACT, 2.9 unweighted GPA (chances?)

Male/Caucasian
Large Public (500 students)
Massachusetts
Low income
Possible majors: English/Creative Writing

2.9 unweighted (2.4 freshman, 3.0 sophomore, 3.3 junior)
3.7 weighted according to my high school, about 3.5 regularly weighted (.75 AP, .5 H, .25 regular)
class rank: top 30-35%

Honors or AP English every year
Honors Spanish every year
Honors History every year
Honors Science Junior Year (cp1 fresh/soph)
Honors Math Junior Year (cp1 fresh/soph)
Honors C++ Junior Year

Senior Year Schedule (I am taking a gap year, so hopefully I’ll be able to do well and drag my gpa up my senior year)
AP Lit.
AP Calc. AB
AP Gov’t
AP Euro.
AP Psych.

SAT I: 2090 (680 Math, 680 CR, 730 Writing(8 Essay)) // I took it early on in the year, so I wasn’t very prepped
ACT: 35 (35 English(11 Essay), 36 Math, 36 Reading, 34 Science) // taken later in the year

SAT II:
Actual: Literature (800)
Hypothetical: Math II (800) or US History (800) // I don’t know which one to take…

AP Exams:

Actual:
AP Lang. (4) // I was pretty shocked not to have gotten a five. I consistently nailed the MC section getting 85-90% correct and did fairly well on essays (6’s, 7’s, 8’s)

Hypothetical:
AP Lit. (5)
AP Calc. AB (5)
AP Gov’t (5)
AP Euro. (4 or 5)
AP Psych. (5)

EC:

Cross Country Varsity (Junior & Senior)
Indoor Track Varsity (Junior & Senior)
Outdoor Track Varsity (Junior & Senior)
Summer Job at restaurant (All of High School)
Some volunteering hours (~ 50)

Assuming all Rec’s are good.
Essays will be excellent.

I wouldn’t apply EA if I were you, because while the rest of your stats are excellent, UMass is putting a lot of importance on GPA. If I were you I’d work hard first semester and then apply for regular decision. Your odds look good though