<p>I (like most other prospective '12 ers out there) am pretty nervous for college admissions and I have been looking at quite a few chances threads and know some information from Gatekeepers, A for Admissions, and that Princeton Study on College admissions and I have come up with an idea on how very competitive (Ivies, Stanford, MIT, Duke, WashU, Northwestern..pretty much top 15 schools) college admissions work. I think there are 3 piles for applications (at very competitive schools), those to be read seriously, those to be read not so seriously, and those not to be read at all. The last group contains information that makes it quite blatant the student could not possibly compete in a competitive environment (like straight C's, 1400/2400 SAT score....etc). Obviously, no one gets accepted from this pile. Now, I think the first pile (those to be read seriously) has kids who fulfill at least two of these criteria (class rank in the top 5%, SAT score over 2100, URM,athlete, legacy, or Early Decision applicant). I think the accpetance rate for most in this pile is about 30-40% at all very competitive schools save HYPSMC, where it might be around 20-30%. The second pile, those not to be read that seriously, fulfill none of the requirements to be in the first pile, but still could succeed in a competitive environment. I think the acceptance rate for these kids might be around 10-15% at all competitive schools save HYPSMC where their acceptance rate may be around 5-10%. Now I know this may all sound strange and unfactual (I'm not saying it's factual) but I think if one looks at the chances threads it would confirm, in a part my hypothesis. Even though the acceptance rate at Harvard may be 9%, generally close to 25% of CCers get accepted because a good portion fall in the first pile (and a few in the second pile) Please, if you read this, give any comments to my idea (even it's horrible)</p>
<p>Hmm, I agree with most of the things you say. I think, however, that the "first pile" would have higher standards than top 5% and SAT>2100.</p>
<p>i think you are wrong sir. in the three piles... the pile that gets the most attention are the BORDERLINE cases. IF someone has super-duper credentials such as Olympian, entrepreneur, perfects stats + other stuff, they are likely to get in. The borderline cases are always the toughest.</p>
<p>You know something, that makes sense. Top colleges that have thousands of applications have to have some way to organize their applications...</p>
<p>^^^ But in his example, the borderline cases, IMO, would be in the first pile. I also think not many people would get in from the second pile.</p>
<p>Well, remember I am not only talking about HYPSM, I'm also considering schools that are considerably less selective. That's why I set the standards for the first pile like that. As you can see, probably only at most 30% of people who meet the qualifications for the first pile get in at HYPSM.</p>
<p>sounds alright...</p>
<p>the generic "you have a 10% chance at harvard just like everyone else!" comment definitely does not fit everyone who is applying, and i'd say people on CC usually have a much better shot</p>
<p>I think it is not just 3 piles but buckets on the basis of AI (Academic Indexes). Each application is reviewed by at least 3.</p>
<p>If you give AI a top score of 100 (what ever way you compute) there are 6 buckets. The process of buckets is totally computerized with a second manual look at the reject bucket.
B1 - 95 - 100: Auto Admit or scanned for flaws. (Reject only if 2 of 3 rejects)
B2 - 90 - 95: Auto Admit with a more thorough scan for flaws. (Reject only if 1 of 3 reject)
You don't need recommendation for the first two buckets. The process is to find issues in the applicant to reject.
B3 - 80 - 90: Highly likely to admit with a thorough review (Get in with even 1 of 3 recommend)
B4 - 60 - 80: Likely to admit and gets the grueling reviews (Get in with 2 of 3 recommendations)
B5 - 50 - 60: Rarely admit but the applications are scanned. (Get in with all 3 recommendations)
B6 - < 50: Auto rejects but the applications are added to other buckets with a manual scan.</p>