The common data set is a much more accurate way to classify your safety/match/reaches.
And note, that for selective schools, even if your stats are at or above the 75th percentile, they are still reaches because of the overall low acceptance rate.
Also be sure to look at acceptance rates for your major, and if it’s a public, the difference between in/out of state. Those things can make what looks like a match or safety actually be a match or reach.
Most admission stats, Naviance plots, admission calculators, etc. do not account for varying levels of selectivity for different majors at the same college. So a student applying for a more popular major (e.g. computer science, (pre-)nursing) typically needs to aim lower on the college selectivity range than a student applying for a less popular major. However, it is often difficult to tell how much more selective the more popular major is compared to the college overall, making it more difficult to determine reach/match/likely/safety.
So… no tools except for just asking here in the forum? Thanks.
@cc88288 Using Admissions websites’ class profiles (see Brown’s here: https://admission.brown.edu/sites/g/files/dprerj526/files/2019-11/Counselor%20Newsletter.pdf) and in-state/out-of-state acceptance rates (for public schools) is a helpful first-step to categorize schools by safety, match, or reach. However, the class profile only tells you where your academic stats have a good chance of admission, and schools that have similar stats will vary A LOT when it comes to the rest of the application (extracurriculars, essays etc.) For example, the students getting into T20s vs. HYPSM have similar academics, based on the Admissions websites, but the applications of those getting into HYPSM TEND to be much stronger than those getting into T20s (this is also complicated by the fact that T20s have ED, while HYPSM doesn’t.)
At the end of the day, choosing where to apply is a VERY personal decision, and if you want to apply to a dream school and have the money/time, then go ahead and do so (BUT STILL APPLY TO SAFETIES!!) However, it’s also important to know where you’re out of your league (for example, knew I wasn’t HYPSM level, so didn’t even bother applying: it would have been a donation fee lol and they have enough money w/o me giving them more,) and reading CC admitted student result threads (though take these with a grain of salt as CC tends to attract more high-stats admits and you can’t trust everything on the internet) to get a GENERAL idea of the ECs that students at each school were admitted to (ex: HYPSM admits are more LIKELY to have national/international awards etc vs. at T20s especially ED it’s fine to not have major national awards etc.)
Just my 2 cents, and all of this is my OPINION, it can differ from others and I’m not trying to start a discussion. 
Hope that helps! Good luck with admissions!
When it comes to highly selective colleges, no one here has the ability to predict, either. People have experiences and anecdotes and some people have worked in the process but by and large, unless you are looking at schools with guaranteed admission for reaching a benchmark, there are no guarantees. We had success using Naviance and guidance counselor experience but even so, they can’t reveal whether or not a student applied ED, was a recruited athlete, was a legacy student, or needed financial aid. There is also no way to see who else is in the applicant pool for any given year.
Naviance is certainly more useful than these online calculators. As an example, Naviance was more successful than prepscholar at predicting my D’s chances, because naviance effectively factored in grade deflation at her school. But to repeat my earlier comment, the calculators worry me more at the other end because I think they have a tendency to make some holistic schools seem a much safer bet than they really are.
But re your comment above: please don’t underestimate asking here, where other insight can also be gained. Example : certain schools that look like matches or even safeties practice yield protection, and your student is likely to get denied or waitlisted if they haven’t shown interest - especially if their stats are well above average. (There have been a number of “I thought it was a safety but they denied me” posts here. This is also something Naviance can pick up, via waitlists/denials at higher GPA ranges for the school). Another example of insight here is if your student is considering early decision, knowing where it’s a real advantage vs where it’s only really an advantage if you’re legacy or an athlete.
Your kid’s GC should be able to help. Does your HS have Naviance or Scoir? They aren’t perfect but likely better than any online calculator.
Generally, and roughly: (others may have different, well supported opinions):
-All schools with less than 20% acceptance rates are reaches for virtually all applicants. Only those with strong hooks (athletic recruit, major donor, some legacies) have better chance than a reach. These schools are still reaches for most URMs, first gen, low ses applicants.
-Schools with auto admits based on stats are safeties, if they are affordable
-Those with 80%+ acceptance rates plus test scores in mid 50% or better are highly likelies, it’s best that those are affordable too. There’s no point in getting accepted to a school that one can’t afford.
-Schools between 20%-80% can be reaches, matches or highly likelies depending on stats, rigor, and other application components. It’s just not scientific. This year will be even less predictable because of the test optional thing.
While I’m waiting to hear from my kid’s GC (their response is very slow right now), I made a list of all 4 year colleges in the Western Undergraduate Exchange that offer pre-nursing or nursing, and divided them into chance categories (below).
My kid has a 2.8 GPA, 5 AP/Honors classes, two varsity letters, and some school club experience, and is an URM. We’re in a small city in the West (a college town, actually). My kid’s h/s has 250 seniors. I entered my kid’s GPA and PSAT score into PrepScholar’s calculator, and the chance estimates it gave are listed in parentheses below. (I also got chance estimates from CollegeVine, but they were all 91-93%, so I thought it was meaningless).
If you can spare a minute, I’d love to get your opinion on my categorization – would you categorize any differently? And those in the UNDETERMINED category, please suggest HIGH REACH, REACH, MATCH or SAFETY.
I understand what I’m doing is imprecise and uncertain, but I kind of like having a big picture, even if it’s fuzzy, before diving into researching more specific info.
Thank you!
*** HIGH REACH ***
California State University, Bakersfield
California State University, Dominguez Hills (58%)
California State University, East Bay (31%)
California State University, Stanislaus (43%)
Northern Arizona University (8%)
Southern Oregon University (19%)
University of Colorado Denver
University of Hawaii at Hilo (20%)
University of Hawaii at Manoa (1%)
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
University of Nevada, Reno (18%)
University of Utah
Washington State University (9%)
*** REACH ***
Boise State University (16%)
Central Washington University (26%)
Eastern Washington University (25%)
Mayville State University (21%)
Montana State University, Billings (14%)
Montana State University, Bozeman
Oregon Institute of Technology
Portland State University (27%)
University of Alaska Anchorage (25%)
University of Alaska Fairbanks
University of Montana, Missoula
University of New Mexico
University of Northern Colorado
Utah State University (17%)
*** MATCH ***
Colorado Mesa University (41%)
Colorado State University-Pueblo (68%)
Metropolitan State University of Denver (36%)
University of Wyoming (37%)
*** SAFETY ***
Eastern Oregon University (82%)
Lewis-Clark State College (94%)
Western Oregon University (70%)
*** UNDETERMINED ***
Adams State University
College of Southern Nevada
Dickinson State University
Dixie State
Eastern Arizona College
Eastern Wyoming College
Great Basin College
Minot State University
Montana State University, Northern
Montana Tech
Nevada State College
New Mexico Highlands University
New Mexico State University
North Dakota State University
Northern New Mexico College
South Dakota State University
Southern Utah University
University of North Dakota
University of South Dakota
Washington State University Tri-Cities
Western New Mexico University
Western Washington University
You are going to have to delineate between pre-nursing and direct admit nursing for each school. Online calculators will be worthless for direct admit nursing programs.
Direct admit nursing programs tend to have low admit rates, lower than the school’s overall rate, because the spots are capped.
Some direct admit nursing programs are not test optional either…does your student have a test score? So make sure you understand the current requirements for admission. Often, there is a minimum required GPA level for direct admit nursing as well.
The head of the program should be able to tell you (your student) the admission rate.
For schools where it would be pre-nursing make sure there are other majors that are appealing, for a plan B.
Lastly, it may make sense to consider going to community college for an ADN, as that would be relatively inexpensive, and your student could be sure they want nursing and can do the work, in a low risk environment.
Also, be aware that some direct admit nursing programs have rigorous weed-out criteria (e.g. high college GPA like 3.5).
If he can get into a community college ADN program, that may be a lower risk option leading to becoming an RN; there is also the option to do an RN->BSN program (typically less competitive) afterward. Straight BSN programs are riskier because if you get weeded out, you have nothing, even if you make it 3.5 years before being weeded out.
Good feedback–thank you.
Only Hawaii-Manoa on my list has direct admit, based on info at:
https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/dataverse/direct-admit-nursing-programs
And yes, getting ADN at a community college is our kid’s back-up plan, if admission to a 4 yr program does not happen.
Direct entry to the BSN program at UH Manoa requires a minimum 3.0 HS GPA, but is probably more competitive than that: https://nursing.hawaii.edu/nursing-bachelor/high-school-direct-entry-in-nursing/how-to-apply/ . Weed-out threshold is 3.0 college GPA, with minimum B grades in some specific courses.
Thanks. My current thought is my kid ought to focus on the SAFETY and MATCH schools, and not apply to any on the HIGH REACH list, such as UH Manoa.
New Mexico State University has pre Nursing and auto admit with a 2.75+ GPA. Students can also earn merit scholarships in addition to the WUE rate. Students from Arizona and Colorado automatically pay instate tuition and students from other states pay instate with at least a 3.5 GPA and a 23 ACT. Weighted GPA’s accepted.