<p>I'm just a waitlistee here trying to crunch up some numbers.</p>
<p>Last year, UoC admitted around 2670 kids with a 53% yield.</p>
<p>This year, despite the drop in applications, UoC admitted (correct me if I'm wrong) 2306 kids with a lower admit rate than last year.</p>
<p>That means 360+ less kids were admitted than last year.</p>
<p>If the 10% drop in applications indicates popularity or desirability, UoC should have a similar yield this year (or less), correct? Unless they admitted a ton more kids ea (who would more likely commit), I don't see why UoC's yield should keep on growing and growing. Advertisements have done wonders in giving kids an incentive to apply, but the growth must slow done eventually. The 62% yield predicted in the article is above many other ivy leagues and even approaches Princeton's 65-66% yield.</p>
<p>Does anyone else predict that Chicago will have to rely on its waitlist? (LOL: I'm obviously hoping so... but the data indicates just that)</p>
<p>Realistically, few people will get taken off of the waitlist; so try to fall in love with your back up school, the one that has accepted you. No matter how this turns out, you will make the best out of your college experience. As far as the yield goes, there’s liitle doubt it will be at least 60%. The University has had underestimated the yield over the last few years and that caused the restraint on their housing. They are not going to commit the same mistake again. Yes, the 62% would approach Princeton’s yield territory. The cat is out of the bag now.</p>
<p>They are shooting for a number of 1420 students for the class of 2018. I remember there were 20 or so gap year students last year. So they are trying to fill 1400 out of 2304 admitted, which will generate a yield of 61%.</p>
<p>I think the yield rate is a bit optimistic (maybe doable). But I think/hope they are more conservative this year since they have over enrolled for 3 years in a row and they really have had bed problem. E.g., last year some triples were installed and New Grad and I-House were converted to undergraduate hall.</p>
<p>The past four years’ enrollment numbers are:</p>
<p>class 2014: 1414
class 2015: 1411
class 2016: 1527 - BIG
class 2017: 1426</p>
<p>You can see if all class 2014 students graduate on time it will relieve 1414 beds only. The freshman retention rate is 99% (with transfer rate of 2%) in recent years there are not many attrition. They are running at the physical plant capacity now. </p>
<p>The admissions office is either deliberately overestimating the yield in order to decrease the initial acceptance rate, or is really making a foolishly optimistic prediction. For all we know, the yield could drop from last year. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they’re forced to take tons of kids off the waitlist this year. </p>
<p>On the contrary, the administration seemed always underestimating the yield in recent years. They would put themselves in a tight spot if they overenroll again this year because there would not be enough beds for the incoming class if they did. </p>
<p>At an admissions event, I had heard that the “take rate” among admitted EA candidates was higher than expected, something that was a significant factor in driving down the RD (and overall) admissions rate. As a result, yield growth doesn’t seem to be too fanciful a notion. Additionally, a conservative (high) yield estimate seems prudent to prevent over-stressing the housing stock, which is filled to capacity. </p>
<p>DoinSchool - I agree its a big increase, but these admissions folks are close to the numbers and, as theluckystar points out, they’ve been mostly conservative. </p>