marlowe1, super point.
I believe you are correct that the typical student from Texas is likely from a major urban population center. I will endeavor to look into this more in years to come.
Thus far my casual observation shows top sources as St John’s in Houston (incredibility well-endowed private school founded after WW2 to provide Texans the equivalent of New England boarding school education) and very wealthy public schools with the state’s top sports programs like Westlake High in Austin. My sense is that the sources in New York and California probably show similar patterns—i.e. that major urban centers produce most of Chicago students from those states.
I believe your question is particularly interesting as I would like a measure of rural/farm sources for students from each of Texas, New York and California as these locations are likely more similar than we may think.
The context of Texas at 100 students vs. say New York at 250 students is particularly interesting due to the relative size and direction of the states. New York is the 4th largest in the USA at 19 mm and shrinking. Texas is the 2nd largest in the USA at 30 mm and growing. While Texas is 58% larger than New York, it produces 60% fewer students Chicago matriculants.
My sense is there is massive upside to Texas in next decade for Chicago. There is also a development angle as the level of wealth in Texas is massive and expanding rapidly. The opposite trend is happening in New York (although most of wealth is going to Florida vs. Texas). The largest donation in Chicago history created the Booth School of Business, ranked #1 by USNWR last year ($350mm). David Booth moved his company from California to Texas some years ago. Recently, similar moves to Texas were made quietly a very large spinoffs of Blackstone, and by a family office of a Blackstone founders. These are development prospects in Texas that can change the direction of Chicago students with financial needs for the next century.
There are two major challenges that face Chicago in recruiting Texas, The subtleties are different than the typical cross admit battle vs Harvard and Stanford for a top northern city prospect.
The first challenge relates to the near unlimited resources of the state university system. With an endowment second only to Harvard, and likely to surpass Harvard due to the trends discussed above in decades to come, Texas students see a UT degree as “almost as good” as Harvard, Chicago, Stanford if they want to stay in Texas. One certainty about Texas is they are a.) the most hospitable folks I have ever encountered when you visit them and b.) they love their state more than anyplace I ever visited or lived.
The second challenge is from Rice—major endowment, elite academic reputation, warm weather in a super nice neighborhood—kind of like the Northwestern of Texas.
Chicago has it work cut out in Texas if it wants to continue to make deliberate and consistent progress in the Longhorn state. Stanford, Harvard and Chicago will all be quite an adjustment for a Texas high school graduate, but my sense is that Chicago will make Texas kids feel the most welcome vs. Harvard and Stanford, and in the long term, this will make a difference.