I’ve read lots of posts lately and feel I should comment having gone through this process with my DD last cycle. Admission to any of the schools mentioned here (acronym or NOT) is not at all predictable! I see lots of potential students mentioning one, two, or even three schools for which they are interested. It was suggested to us by an admission officer that applicants consider applying for about six schools and to make certain that several match your academic profile. Then, add in the schools that are considered a reach for everyone and really hope for the best.
Do not under estimate the time it takes to really refine your essays. The time leading up to the application deadlines goes by in an instant, especially if you are also studying for SSATs, continuing to do well in school, and actively participating in extracurriculars. This process is like a job!
Take a few moments (probably at least an hour!) to review the results thread leading up to March 10 last year. It is very informative and will provide you with a better understanding on how this may play out for you.