i seem to recall during our campus visits one of the ivies ( i think it was penn) where they told us they specifically gave ED applicants an extra “edge”.
Good luck to your son.
i remember the regional admissions officer greeting my son during admitted students day in april and complimenting him on his essay and his recommendations. Not on his grades, SAT scores, ECs or the school he went to…
@Tiglathpileser Thank you! There are lot hard work ahead of him before this is all said and done. He can use some good wishes:-)
You can go with the 14-15% as I was looking at athletic department size and doing some rough extrapolation.
My guess was trying to represent what that other post said.
For sure apply ED1 if Uchicago is top choice. ED1 probably is in the 14-16 % range. It’s is possible to apply ED2 if ED1 fails. But most who get rejected from ED1 and apply ED2 are deferred to regular admissions, which has an impossibly low single digit admit rate.
I would suggest UChicago ED1, and Duke ED2. My thinking:
-“blacklist” is really not likely to be a thing here
-ED1 vs ED2 stats are not that reliable. So I wouldn’t even try to compare Chicago’s possible ED1 vs Duke’s ED2 or whatever. But what we do know is that Chicago’s ED1 rate is a lot more than its RD, and seems likely to be better than its ED2.
Also, I’m just guessing that his instate flagship is UNC-Chapel Hill. (If there is a “decent” public school in the Southeast outside of NC that sends 10-12 students a year to Duke, I am surprised.) So if he has an excellent backup like that–and one that overall might be $150K or more less than Chicago or Duke–I think he can swing for the fences to try to get where he really wants to. If his top two choices don’t work out, there’s still at least a chance of another top school in RD.
Duke doesn’t have ED2.
I suggest ED1, even if ED2 and ED1 have the same acceptance rates. Based on anecdotal information here in CC, it is easier for an applicant who is “on the border” to get accepted in ED1. It makes sense, there are more slots to fill at the beginning so border cases are likely given the benefit of the doubt. Not so with ED2 with the Ivy Refugees and the much much much bigger pool of RDs being looked at at the same time period.
This is only if UChicago is really his number one choice and will likely be a lot less happy getting into Duke and not ever knowing if he would have made it to UChicago.
If not, Duke ED1 and UChicago ED2.
Thanks all, all have good points. Yes we’re in NC. Ultimately it will be his decision and it’s up to him what kind commitment he will need to put in to improve his standing, regardless which school.
Surprised no one has mentioned this option:
- Apply EA UChicago AND ED Duke by Nov 1.
- If accepted by either then he is forced to attend Duke.
- If deferred by Duke and UChicago then convert Chicago application to ED2. Duke app automatically goes to RD.
This path would allow 3 early applications. EA rates at Chicago are very very low, but he may get lucky. He could also add other nonbinding EA schools to the mix: MIT and Caltech for example.
Also keep in mind that it’s much harder for unhooked Asians to get in. So I’d say that the acceptance rates you quoted would be much lower.
But I agree with others. If Chicago is his first choice then apply ED1. With the new test optional policy and generous financial aid, admissions will be brutal in Hyde Park this year.
Thanks sgopal2. He doesn’t believe he has the good enough credential to get in Chicago’s EA. In theory this option gives 3 early applications but in reality UChicago would know a) this application can only applied other non-Restrictive Early Action schools, they would know this is definitely not a HYPS refugees and b) is unseccessful in his first pursuit.
Will it make any difference? I don’t know. But I incline to think ED1 Duke ED2 Chicago is “cleaner” than this. By the time the app is read by Chicago AO, they would have a fresh first look.
Yeah new test optional, two minutes video, this will be even a wilder year than a couple previous wild years. Only for that reason the ED/ED2 strategy is being brought up. Otherwise it will simple, pick your #1 choice school and put your best effort.
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Does your school guidance counsellor offer any advice? Sometimes they have the ear of the college admissions reps. They can often give you a more realistic chance of which is the best option.
Another thing to consider is to keep careful tabs on who else from your son’s HS class will be applying. If 20 of the top kids are applying early to Duke and none to UChicago, then please rethink strategy. The colleges always say there is no ceiling for # of admits from any given HS, but this is baloney.
At our HS the kids were pretty mum about their application strategy and which schools they were applying to…so hard to figure out how many kids have applied to X. Your best friend will be the GC, who of course can’t tell you directly what the other kids are doing, but can hint at your competitive standing if you listen very carefully.
He has a new guidance counselor this year and probably takes a while to get to familiarize with school’s previous stats and be in a position to help my son.
Does guidance counselor violate any “confidentiality” disclosing how many prospects plan to apply school like Chicago or Duke?
Every year it seems that a good number of EA-deferreds who switch get admitted in the EDII round. I’ve argued in the past that it’s not just the Ivy refugees or failed ED’s who are in that pool - it’s also deferred UChicago EA’s who should have applied ED but didn’t for whatever reason. I wouldn’t worry so much about not looking “successful” - they provide the application option for those who need it at that time for whatever reason, and they choose from the best in the pool. However, if they are going to give someone an edge - why would it be an “Ivy Refugee” over someone who applied EA to UChicago? The second one might just be the better fit. Not sure that UChicago is looking to the opinions of other schools or where else someone might have applied when deciding who is best for UChicago.
I wouldn’t default to the EDII pool unless you need to because, all else equal, the admission chances are probably lower (same sized pool but probably smaller draw). Personal probabilities aren’t the same thing as the admit rate, of course, and your son will maximize his chances for admission with his application, not with the pool he selects into. He just needs to ensure that he selects into the correct pool. If UChicago is his first choice and he wants to apply early, it makes the most sense to apply EDI to UChicago, not to Duke. If he’s indifferent, then apply to Duke ED and UChicago EA. He’ll need to figure out how he truly feels about each school.
@JBStillFlying what you said make sense…
I agree with @JBStillFlying. I think putting in an early app at UChicago (even if it is EA) is better than waiting until later for ED2. He can always convert an EA app to ED2.
Regarding your question about guidance counselor: since your GC is relatively new, the impact will be less. The counselors who have been around for a long time get to the know the admissions officers quite well. The counselors at private schools/boarding schools are very skilled, and take this very seriously. If your son is from a public HS, the GC intuition will be less predictable, but still not impossible.
You probably won’t get a direct answer if you ask the GC how many others from sons HS are applying ED to Duke. But if you ask if his chances are better by applying ED to Duke or ED to Chicago, then you may get some clues.
One way to find out who is applying where is to attend the college visits, if they visit your HS. That’s how my son found out who was applying to UChicago 
And he already knew which of those kids were commended/National Merit and for a few of them he even knew their ACT score (some of them talk . . . ). Since he’s in all AP this year, he also knows their course loads.
My son isn’t gauging the competition and it really doesn’t matter anyway since our HS typically has 8 - 10 applying to UChicago every year but only sends one every few years or so. Not because that’s all that’s allowed - it’s more about who happen to be qualified. I’d argue that our GC’s do a pretty poor job of helping students decide their reaches!
This might have already been discussed, but If OP’s son has access to Naviance, there will be a history there - that’s probably a better way to gauge his chances, all else equal.
@sgopal2 @JBStillFlying thanks for the great suggestion!