Thank you everyone for all your input! I was out all day but it is really nice to come back to so many helpful replies. This was a little bit of a reality check but I guess it’s better to have that now than to have it this time next year. It really looks like my best choice is the National Merit scholarship schools (for the person who asked, 1490 overall with a 223 selection index which is well above what cutoffs have historically been in Ohio). Time to remake my list essentially from scratch!