<p>@ northstarmom</p>
<p>Yeah I know I need to start applying to some safties,everybody has been telling me that lately.It's just that I can't stand doing apps and writing essays,it's also such a waste of money if I do accepted to my reach schools.I just want to wait until I hear from the other schools before I apply to the reach schools.How long do you think that'll be?</p>
<p>What are your stats? Give everyone some idea of your GPA/SATs and if you have any special circumstances. That will help everyone to predict whether or not you will get into one of your reaches and which schools would be solid safeties at this point. Also, when did you apply to your rolling schools? It can make a difference..</p>
<p>i have 1 safety and 14 reaches... its more exciting that waty</p>
<p>Well, if it is a good safety, you should only need 1 (because its a gaurentee) still, ya never know what will happen. Id reccomend 2 safeties, some matches, and a bunch of reaches. thats how im gonna do it.</p>
<p>So, wouldn't statistics show that if you apply to all of the ivies, you should get into at least one? Lol, I wish actually, too bad awesome competitors apply to like every one.</p>
<p>definately go and apply to some safeties ASAP! </p>
<p>when I apply, I think Ill probably have one safety, about 3 matches, 2 reach/matches and 3 or 4 super reachers.</p>
<p>"So, wouldn't statistics show that if you apply to all of the ivies, you should get into at least one? "</p>
<p>Nope. That's not how statistics works.</p>
<p>
[quote]
just want to wait until I hear from the other schools
[/quote]
The universal RD date for acceptance/denies is April 1st. Some colleges may let you know a few days before that. Then you reply as to what college you will attend by May 1. All of the finan aid paperwork must be done early enough so that the colleges can make their FA offers during April. If you wait that long, it will be hard to get into a competitive college.</p>
<p>"So, wouldn't statistics show that if you apply to all of the ivies, you should get into at least one?"</p>
<p>I have thought about this. The one snag is that obviously admissions is highly correlated (e.g. those rejected from Yale have a high probability of being rejected from Harvard). However, it also occurred to me that there are many people who have a low probability of being accepted to any individual Ivy but may have a decent chance of landing one between all 8.</p>
<p>
[quote]
So, wouldn't statistics show that if you apply to all of the ivies, you should get into at least one?
[/quote]
HYP accept about 10% and the other ivies accept a few more. Assume the 10% figure for all eight ivies. Then the probability of being denied to all eight is:
(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9)(.9) = 43%
and so the probability of getting into at least one is:
1 - 0.43 = 67%</p>
<p>This should be very encouraging since a 67% chance of getting into at least one ivy if you apply to all eight is pretty damn good. The problem is that people tend to overestimate their chances.</p>
<p>67% chance IF YOU ARE GOOD ENUF</p>
<p>Its not a raw probability where someone with a 0.1 GPA and 600/2400 in SAT can get into one of them</p>
<p>I had a friend who applied to all Ivies and Swarthmore (along with matches). Rejected by all of them except Columbia-waitlisted.</p>
<p>dufus3709, 57%!!!!</p>
<p>Without belaboring our personal story, I recommend having one or two FINANCIAL safeties. Even if you are accepted to your reach school, you may not be able to afford it. We assumed that we would get some financial aid that didn't materialize. Unless you have an EFC of like zero, apply to a couple of schools that you can afford without financial help.</p>
<p>dufus3707, I don't think that you can perform that statistical calculation because each application in an independent event. I admit I don't really know about statistics, but it doesn't seem like one would have any bearing on the other. I mean, if your chance of acceptance is 10% at each one, how could your chances be better at eight? Isn't your chance 10% at each one? Anybody know?</p>
<p>(it just isn't intuitive to me that the shotgun approach will help that much)</p>
<p>The problem with the whole "probability" thing is that admissions isn't like rolling a die or picking marbles out of a bag. Like people have said, you have to be good enough to get in. If you have a good application, you have a better chance of getting in. If not, your chance is lower. That's why admissions committees spend days, nights, and months going through applications and discussing them, as opposed to running the names through a computer and picking them at random.</p>
<p>
[quote]
dufus3709, 57%!!!!
[/quote]
Thank you! My only defense is that I did it at 2:31AM. :)</p>
<p>lkf725:
You have a good point. The math is good though provided you can estimate the chance of admission at each college. For example, your chance might be 20% at Harvard, 18% at Yale, 21% at Princeton, and so on. I made the assumption of 10% at all eight and this is unlikely since not all ivies are equally selective, just as not all landing surfaces are equally hard if you jump out a fourth floor window. The events are not independent but the math is good provided you can get a good estimate for the probability at each college. I don't think you can do that, but maybe try taking your most optomistic estimate. Applicants with perfect 1600's are accepted at Harvard at the rate of about 40-45%.</p>
<p>
[quote]
if your chance of acceptance is 10% at each one, how could your chances be better at eight?
[/quote]
If your probability is 10% at each one and you apply to all eight, then you have a probability of 57% of being accept to at least one. The prob is 43% that you will be accepted to 0. The prob is 57% that you will be accepted to either 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8.</p>
<p>I hate northstarmom's comment. She always makes annoying, naggy comments. She thought I didn't know how stats works so she said that. Obviously I know hence when I said "I wish" and about the high competitors.</p>
<p>logisticswizard:
Your full quote was:
[quote]
So, wouldn't statistics show that if you apply to all of the ivies, you should get into at least one? Lol, I wish actually, too bad awesome competitors apply to like every one.
[/quote]
It is very hard to pickup on sarcasm online. Sometimes I have gotten responses that I thought were insultingly sarcastic, but it turns out the the person was completely serious, and vice versa. Northstarmom is one of the nicest people on CC.</p>
<p>yeah but lols and wish is pretty easy to pick up</p>