Am I overthinking this?

I do think the formal accepted student groups have more resources devoted to them. School clubs held special events at some schools, for instance.

It is a waste of time to book them, what if he doesn’t get in? Tours won’t fill up – if you decide not to go to the accepted days for scheduling reasons (like if 2 overlap), call admissions and see if they can arrange an overnight, sitting in on campus, meals, etc. A tour with the unwashed (unadmitted) masses isn’t what he needs once he is accepted.