Interesting string. As someone who looks routinely at the data Kevin cites (the accepted student questionnaire — ASQ), the so-called win rate for Middlebury vs Williams has increased, but it is still less than 40%. It has increased from around the 10% that Kevin sites above (in 1992) to what was a high of about 41% for one year, but is now more typically in the 30s%. The data do not include 100% of a class, but ranges from about 68-82% response rate in any given year.</p>
<p>Two interesting things about the data in those ASQs: Middlebury’s overlap group has shifted signficantly in the past 15 years, and especially in the past 5 years. Its largest overlap school is Dartmouth. The other 9 schools include Williams (#2 or #3 the past 5 years), Amherst, 5 Ivies and two other NESCAC schools. 15 years ago, schools including Bates, St Lawrence, Skidmore, Hamilton, and Trinity were on the list; none are among the top overlaps now.
Now Midd might just be a safety school for all the current overlap schools for many applicants, but the percentage who do choose Middlebury over Williams, Amherst, and the Ivies has increased over the past decade, and is much greater if the students are intersted in international studies, environmental studies, or foreign languages.</p>
<p>I think Middlebury’s data are no longer cooked or manipulated. The current president (or dean of admissions) went the route of including all SAT scores two or three years ago, rather than what it used to do and what Bowdoin, and other schools that make SATs optional among other test scores do, which is to submit only a portion of the scores(and their reported average scores dropped at least 40-50 points — on the tables in US News), they have also been among the most open, it seems, about posting information publicly about their financial situation and the cuts they are making.</p>
<p>Middlebury has a different slant now, too, than 15 years ago, and that, I beleive, more than anything, has attracted students who formerly saw little reason to choose a Middlebury over the more highly regarded schools. It has 31 sites abroad (and 60% of its juniors study abroad), the now 10 intensive foreign language schools in the summer, the Bread Loaf School of English, and a huge push for international and environmental education. I think it is very different place than what some Ephs on this string experienced when looking at colleges a few decades back.</p>
<p>It takes a long time for colleges to move up the pecking order (of prestige), but even with honest SAT scores reported for the past 2-3 years, Middlebury has made the largest jumps in the last 5 years, going from 11 to 5,which probably means nothing, or should mean nothing…though it does reflect some kind of collective “perception.”