Amid Uncertainty, Admissions Dean Discusses Drop in Harvard Applications

"A nationwide decrease in the number of high school seniors could contribute to this year’s seven percent drop in applicants to Harvard College’s Class of 2024, according to Dean of Admissions and Financial Aid William R. Fitzsimmons ’67.

Fitzsimmons said additional factors accounting for the drop could include social disruptions such as natural disasters, school shootings, and a shortage of college counselors, as well as inexpensive public universities closer to applicants’ homes.

States with large applicant pools, such as California, Florida, and Texas, showed declines in applicant numbers from the previous class pool – of 12, 10, and 8 percent, respectively – that surpassed the overall percent decrease." …

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/12/admissions-dean-talks-application-drop/

I think the data coming out the lawsuit is affecting how applicants perceive their chances, especially for those “average excellent” students in big states. When kids realize that more than half of the seats in the class are already spoken for before the admission cycle even begins they cannot help but feel discouraged.

But the reality is that all top schools have similar percentage of seats set aside, with the possible exception of Caltech and MIT.