<p>Have heard lots of rumblings re: reduction in pilot #'s for AF. How acurate are these reports, will the same happen with Navy? Son has appointment to both academies, and as many others who post here, he wants to fly. Any advise on which has better future for aviation. Not sure son wants to be a desk pilot??? Son prefers AF but is a little cautious because of reports.</p>
<p>it'll be awhile yet until the number start dropping. I don't think he should be worrying about it at this stage of the game...</p>
<p>AF definitely has WAY more pilot slots than Navy, any way you look at it.</p>
<p>Fewer</a> pilots heading to training, cockpits - Air Force News, news from Iraq - Air Force Times</p>
<p>going down 925 this year and 1025 for then on.</p>
<p>The future like it or not is with remotely piloted vehicles like the predator and global hawk. Doesn't matter where you choose to fly AF or Navy. We see the frustrations here at Nellis first hand becuase the young pilots end up here. They complete UPT, go learn an airframe (A-10, F-16 - F-15), spend a rotation with an Active squadron and learn they will be flying Predators for a short while.</p>
<p>The technology and defense required of anyone who would be considered out advisary just doesn't require large numbers of piloted fighter jets. I believe it is a short sighted veiw, and we do not really see the threat from China and the former Soviet nations.</p>
<p>2008 will have 520 slots to fill this year. That will probably be the norm for several more years.</p>
<p>OK, let me address this issue, as I have intimate knowledge of the issues facing current fighter assignments for junior officers and career progression based on my job. Even a WSO like me can give you a basic understanding of the issues the AF is dealing with. </p>
<p>First off here is a good bit of information from the folks who work the F-15E assignments at the AF's Military Personnel Center (MPC) about the situation:</p>
<p>The Combat Air Force is short on fighter aircrew (approximately 4300 fighter billets with only 4000 fighter aircrew in the AD inventory), therefore; fighter assignments are heavily requirements driven. The CSAF has directed 100% manning for all Operational and FTU cockpits, ALFA tours, and UAVs. Fighter staff has become the shock absorber for the shortage of fighter experience, which means fewer opportunities for Officer Professional Development on the staff. Based on this shortage, fighter pilot production has been held at maximum levels for the past several years and average time-on-station (TOS) for fighter pilots has been driven below 3 years. At the same time, the number of operational fighter cockpits has been reduced (with further reductions expected from BRAC / QDR). This has led to an over-absorption problem in the CAF, where operational manning has been forced above 100% in order to keep a minimum number of experienced pilots in fighter cockpits to train the large number of inexperienced pilots. The end result of over-absorption, over-manning, lower TOS, and recent flying hour reductions is that some fighter pilots are finished their first fighter assignment without becoming experienced. Concurrently, the overall requirement for experienced fighter pilots has remained relatively stable despite the decrease in fighter cockpits. (Taken directly from the F-15E assignments page on MPC's web-site)</p>
<p>OK, what does this mean in plain language? Simply stated, we currently have too many requirements and not enough pilots to fill them (WSO are picking up some of the slack by acting as Air Liason Officers (Army advisors) and jobbs on the staff, but they are not going to UAVs as flyers anymore (without a civilian rating) and they obviously can't be intrucotr pilots at UPT). NOw your question to me is: "Wait a minute! We have too FEW pilots, and they're cutting production?" IN a nut shell, YES, and here's why.</p>
<p>With the CSAF's decision to man all the pilot requirements, to include UAVs (which are growing in numbers), we are forcing our first term pilots to leave their first operational assignment earlier than usual (2 yrs, 8 month point versus the old standard of 3 year tours). This is bad, as they usually are not able to achieve enough hours to be considered "experienced" (need 500 hours) or have enough time to progress to higher leadership positions like 4-ship flight lead or the higher rating of instructor. The AF has a situation now where experienced pilots are at a premium, because you don't want a squadron where there is too large a number of inexperienced flyers (we like to keep it under 40% so we can stay "combat ready"). Experienced pilot are being kept form jobs outside the fighter cockpit, so it hurts even more as hihger ranking guys, who normally fill the jobs outside of the fighter squsadrons are no longer available for those jobs, so the younger guys are picking them up. </p>
<p>Bottom Line: To keep experience levels manageable, since we have a shortage of experienced flyers, we need to have less younger guys in the squadrons. So, even while we're reducing cockpit numbers (aging fleet, didn't get the full complement we wanted of F-22s, F-35s still years away), we ALSO need to reduce the number of new pilots we're producing at this time.</p>
<p>Notice I said "at this time". We'e been through this before (the famous "bathtub" from the late 90s, whiich I can talk about on another pot if you want), and the AF is working overtime to try to fix the problem. Some things we're looking at: Making the first operational tour for all new pilots (and WSOs) four years (which is the preferred solution for every commander except MPC), opening up the UAVs to a whole new career field of "specially trained" (read: not a full UPT) pilots and or WARRANT OFFICERS (yes, we're even considering bringing THAT back!), making a professional ALO career field for officers, and other programs to reduce the strain of requirements that are outside of flying fighters.</p>
<p>But what does this mean for you young men and women who are apllying or thinking of applying to the AFA iin order to become a "fighter jock". Well, unitl the GWOT is finished (and that ain't happening fo a while) we still have some requirements downrange to fill that will take away from flying. As to UAVs, yes they are COMING. Yes, the number will increase as they pick up more missions. But, NO, they will not be taking the place of the F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, and all the rest soon. These planes are on the books for at least 20 more years (or longer in some cases). Yes, we are looking to add strike capabilities to the UAV fleet , but other missions like Air Dominance (Offensive and Defensive Counter-Air) and others like CAS and SAR are still years away from a guy in a trailer being able to do it. (I wouldn't be suprised to see a remote tanker or transport first)</p>
<p>My opinion, we'll have a few more years of pain, and then we'll scream "WE NEED TO MAKE MORE PILOTS!". Kids entering in 2012 or a couple of years later may go out of the cockpit for their second assignment, then they may fly for the next 10 years after that, if they want....</p>
<p>Not 100% sure if the Navy is facing the same situation, but as they add more UAVs they will probaly start the same growing pains...</p>
<p>In the early 90's refered to the "bath tub" years, the pilot training slots were halfed. The class of '94 was hit very hard. They had already started the 2 degree year when the cut were announced.</p>
<p>I think that folks need to be mindful that this the military, things change. There are no guarantees. There isn't enough money for many things--they are closing the library at F.E. Warren. (this is just sad)</p>
<p>Bullet lays out a very good rendition of the rated management problem that has plagued the force for years. I ran fighter/bomber assignments at the personnel center in the mid-90s during the deep part of the bathtub when ALO assignments were hard to fill and staffs became significantly undermanned with experience. The squadron experience level balance became a driving force along with the hollow "experience" levels created by boring holes in the sky over northern and southern Iraq. It's difficult to predict future requirements and I hope none of those who desire a career flying contemplates any current production numbers and rethinks their career plans. Stick with your hearts and dreams!</p>
<p>well, since we're already on a thread for it... my family's not military, i'm the first to ever want to do this so may not understand everything.</p>
<p>they're putting pilots through UPT, teaching them to fly planes, then taking them out for UAVs?</p>
<p>for those who dont get UAVs, they go to more specialized training learning how to fly more advanced (jet) aircraft, and then after that they get their assignments with the operational planes (fighters, bombers, cargo, refueling, etc), then they dont spend a full tour (3 yrs) actually flying the plane? </p>
<p>haha, bullet you provide so much info, but i'm just trying to decode it into layman's terms.. sorry :)</p>
<p>bottom line: go for your dreams, work hard, and you just may get what you want? even if it's after a tour doing somethin you dont want... ?</p>
<p>
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they're putting pilots through UPT, teaching them to fly planes, then taking them out for UAVs?
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</p>
<p>Not exactly, hneedle. You'll go through UPT get checked out in the plane your selected for, and then you do your first operational tour in THAT plane. Operational tours used to be 3 years, but they have been shortening them recently to 2 years, 8 months to get guys out to other requirements. </p>
<p>Here's a big picture on the time line: Academy - 4 years (Congrats, you're now a 2nd Lt!), UPT - 1 year, Fighter Transition Training (learning to ly your selected plane - 9 months to a year, go to your first Ops unit and stay there for almost 3 years. At the end of your first ops tour, you'll be a young Capt (and you'll be chased by every single girl in the O'Club if you haven't gotten hitched by then :) ). </p>
<p>So, it will be about 5 years after the Academy (when you finish your first Ops tour) that you'll be looked at for "other" opportunities. Which crews aviod this? Your fast-burning, hard-charging, go-getters who have made a name for themselves and are quickly on the path to instructor and then Weapons School. Still too young to get there by year 3, but the bosses know this guy has a future and will protect them (i.e. fight for an ops-to-ops assigment for their next tour to continue to develop their flying potential.)</p>
<p>
[quote]
bottom line: go for your dreams, work hard, and you just may get what you want? even if it's after a tour doing somethin you dont want... ?
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</p>
<p>Wisely you speak, my young Padawan! :) But let me say this. Very few (and I mean VERY FEW) flyers stay flying their entire career. (Usually the guys who go to Weapons School (and even they can expect one or two tours out of the jet during a 20-year career), or the guys who tell the AF to "stuff it, I'm staying flying, and only flyig (and they get passed over for O-5 and lose $700/month in retirment pay for the rest of their lives)). Almost all of us (even the WSOs!) get out of the cockpit and do "something else". I was an ALO with the 82d Abn (got the blood wings to prove it, ended up with 40 static line jumps!). Did it suck not flying? Yeah. But I LOVED THE JOB (even if it was with the Army. Just kidding my fine Army brothers!) Lots of cool things, to include almost getting my gold star in my jump wings as I got turned around in the air from airborne assaulting Haiti. Also went to a year of school at Fort Leavenworth (I swear, I was only there for a year, and it wasn't for a "bad thing"!), and spent 3 years screwing up the rest of the DoD in the Pentagon planning the next 20 years for the AF. </p>
<p>You'll get a broad experience as an officer, and you can either hate or love every job you have. I chose the former, and my life couldn't be happier! I could go on forever about what I love about serving as an officer in the active duty, fromthe experiences tothe life long friends, to the great people I've worked and served with. Live your own advice: go for your dreams, work hard, and I'll add a third: love what you're doing. God knows, when it's time to hang up my spurs (which is all too soon), you'll see this combat veteran shed many a tear as I toast those I leave behind.</p>
<p>HNeedle,</p>
<p>I was looking at a couple of the past drops for UPT and one drop received 2 -38 slots for a class of 28-30. Now most classes are averaging 3-4, but still, cutbacks are being made.</p>
<p>They aren't taking the bottom of the class guys either and sticking them in preds. They're taking the -38 guys and the fighter jocks and sticking them in UAVs. I haven't heard of anyone getting a UAV straight out of UPT but I wouldn't doubt it if it begins to happen.</p>
<p>I guess if you really want to fly and you don't want to take a chance of getting a UAV you better go T-1's and look to fly the heavies. With the level of competition for T-38's, I guess you should bust your balls in everything you do, hope for -38's but plan on T-1's.</p>
<p>On the contrary, I've heard that it's actually easier to get a pilot slot through the Navy. I've also heard it's actually easier to get a fighter, also. Any fellow navy pilots out there want to confirm this?</p>
<p>I still think the Air Force gets more slots and is way easier to get one and I still think it's easier to go fighter in Air Force, but I'm not so sure with the second statement.</p>
<p>It's definitely not easier to get a pilot slot in the Navy, it's MUCH harder. The Navy does have a higher ratio of fighters to other airframes, yet the numbers are still way less. Air Force has way more fighters than Navy. Overall AF is your best bet if you really want to fly, and even if you want to fly fighters. Everyone I've talked to that knows what they are talking about with respect to UPT says you will get 38's if you put in the effort.</p>
<p>so the moral of the story (which of course should seem pretty obvious) is
as hard as it may be, it's reality.. but hey, i'll be fulfilling a dream of flying in the air force, regardless of what it is. just hope for the best and work for it!</p>
<p>I don't who you've talked to about UPT. I know many active duty/retired Air Force pilots and most of them have said this same exact thing. </p>
<p>UPT will push you to your limits more than anything you have ever done. You will put in hours of studying and effort to even make it through the program. It's like drinking from a fire hydrant with the amount of information you learn in that fifty-two week program. But all of them have said that flying is something you are born with. You must have the hands and attitude to get that slot that you want. You can put in your best effort, but at the end of the day if you are 3rd on the list of drops and the first two guys want the -38 track, you are going T-1's or T44's, etc.</p>
<p>slightly off topic... if the AFA gets about 550 flight spots, how many does ROTC get?</p>
<p>This year USAFA received 520 slots I believe, AFROTC also picked up 520 slots, and I'm not sure about OTS, but they usually get around 100 slots, but I'd expect that to drop this year.</p>
<p>On a side note, I read somewhere that currently the current active duty AF pilots are made up of 45% USAFA grads, 45% AFROTC grads, and <10% OTS grads.</p>
<p>HNeedle, I wouldn't say the moral of the story is to go to heavies, as even rhe guys in those cockpits will have non-flying assignments as well. It's called "professional development". No, I would say the moral of the story is that the typical "hollywood" version of a fighter pilot career is slightly off from reality (except the part where they say all the WSOs are debonaire, god-like superheroes, ruggedly handsome to a fault, with big watches and even bigger egos, and the female WSOs all look like Jennifer Beal or Gwen Stephanie). </p>
<p>NEVER GIVE UP YOUR DREAM just because you may have to put up with a couple of "bad deals" in your career. There will come a day when you take-off in full blower, barely lifting off the runway because your loaded down for bear, pushing into bad guy land to dispense America's justice against those foolish enough to threaten us. You'll come off the target, listening to the guys on the ground you just provided air support for offering to buy you the next 10 rounds because you just probaly saved thier lives. AND YOU"LL NEVER BE PROUDER, AND YOU"LL THANK GOD YOU BUSTED YOUR HUMP TO GET WHERE YOU ARE AT THAT MOMENT.</p>
<p>No, the moral is dreams are worth it, and you sometimes have to pay the piper to live them...</p>
<p>haha gotcha coach :) i didnt mean to just go for the heavies and forget dreams, i'll be living a dream just by showing up this june! thanks, all of you for the input.. i've heard of the toughness of UPT, but i definitely dont know much about lives of pilots. it's great to hear from those who have connections, and the "debonaire, god-like superheroes, ruggedly handsome to a fault, with big watches and even bigger egos" WSOs who DO know. so thanks again, it's good to get to know the facts, even though that's still a looong looong way off :)</p>
<p>As a spouse there is nothing that compares to seeing the jet go down the runway with afterburners ;)</p>