FWIW (about a much as the pixels it’s displayed with), I used an acceptance rate of 20% or lower as the cutoff for high reach, 35% for low reach, 45% or lower for match, >45% for safety. The higher up you go, the less predictive test scores alone are, IMHO. That said, my own kid is pretty risk-averse and doesn’t like to hope without getting. If you have a guaranteed admission / guaranteed affordable school you’ll be happy with, and the possibility, however remote, of a big stack of rejections doesn’t faze you, categories don’t really matter that much.
A great suggestion.
Caltech is more intense but its incoming students are slightly better prepared so the overall stress level may be slightly lower than Mudd’s. With regard to financial aid, Caltech is definitely the more generous of the two.
OP does your school have Naviance? For example, when I look at WashU for students from our school with 35-36 ACT and a 4.0, I don’t see rejections but I do see a LOT of waitlists. With Pomona, our Naviance has less data but what’s there shows comparable high stats applications either WL’d or rejected unless they were recruited athletes or applied ED.
@Rivet2000 CMU stopped considering demonstrated interest this past spring. Unfortunately they do not give generous aid, so it is important for OP to run the EFC calculator.
“The higher up you go, the less predictive test scores alone are” <This.
Because the higher the tier, it’s not all about stats. All the rest matters. The key I advocate is the better matching to all the rest a top college wants in you. Plenty of kids will get rejected by a Wellesley, despite their score match.
@Corinthian When I look at my school’s Naviance, I do see that there are people with high scores who get waitlisted at WashU (they are known within my school to yield protect and waitlist very qualified kids who end up going to HYP instead), but with Vanderbilt, I see quite a lot more acceptances than rejections/waitlists in my GPA and score range. Pomona and Wellesley don’t have enough applicants to create a scatterplot it looks like because I can’t get one to show up for me.
@Groundwork2022 I ran CMU’s NPC and even did their online form where the people at the FA office estimate aid and they both came out to a reasonable amount, so I think I might be able to manage the cost of CMU should I get in
I haven’t read all the posts. Your list of colleges includes all reaches and one safety. As long as you are okay with the possiblity that your only choice might be Ohio, your list is fine. I suggest you add another college to your list that has an acceptance rate in the 30-40th percentile.