Anyone want to tell me my chances?

I am a 16-year-old Hispanic, LGBT girl applying to colleges with an intended major in environmental science. I applied ED to Duke, EA to the University of Chicago, and am applying RD to 12 other colleges: Brown, Columbia, Rice, Emory, Notre Dame, Barnard, Washington University in St. Louis, Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt ( ED II if I’m rejected from UChi and Duke).
I got a 34 on my first ACT and a 1500 on my first SAT. I did not take them again. I got a 5 on my AP Lang exam. Last year, I was in AP Lang and AP physics. This year, I am in 5 aps: AP Biology, AP French, AP Euro, AP Lit, and AP Calculus AB. My weighted GPA is around a 4.4 and I have only gotten one overall class grade below a 90 in all 4 years of school. (it was an 88 in algebra 2 in sophomore year).
I am a commended national merit scholar, have gotten a book award from a college for my interest in environmental science, and several other awards from my school. I was in 4H for 7 years and was even president, own my own skincare business, am a student rep on my town’s conservation commission, am president of ecology club, volunteer at a horse therapeutic riding place, am treasurer of French NHS (I am in a total of 3 NHS groups) and do various other activities.I go to a private, Catholic, all girls school. I also did Duke TIP in marine research for a summer. I am not involved in any sports.

I think you have a great shot given that your stats are on par and the fact that you are a minority. Furthermore, Duke’s TIP program is great for any aspiring environmental scientists!. Your ECs are fairly average although your skincare business sounds pretty unique. Good Luck!

Seems like you have a good shot at Duke. If not, you have a pretty good chance for Vandy ED II. I’m sure you’ll get into some of these schools!