<p>surprised about the only modest increase in applications at Penn. That is very surprising given its incredibly high ranking.</p>
<p>Wow, a lot on Northwestern on these boards lately.</p>
<p>Funny thing is most kids here at NU, at least the ones I know anyway, rarely concern themselves with or even know about this transition the school is going through. It's a great thing that our reputation is on the rise, but I think it really isn't an issue of the utmost importance among the students here.</p>
<p>
Funny, I expected your response also. The problem is that this figure (number of finalists at HYP) is unknown. There are many students who would chose a school that gives them a National Merit scholarship over one that gives them no aid and denies them the prestige of being named a National Merit scholar (although obviously these factors depend very much on the individual). HYP can make up for these factors by trying to give financial aid to a greater number of students (which they are trying to do) and hoping that the prestige (and other perceived advantages) of attending HYP as a National Merit finalist outweighs the prestige (and other perceived advantages) of being named a National Merit scholar at another school. I admit that Northwestern's 249 may not be directly comparable to Princeton's 179 but it is certainly far more accurate as a known entity than comparing Northwestern's 63 non-school sponsored scholars to Princeton's 179 that discounts the 186 school sponsored National Merit scholars as being somehow equivalent to an unknown number of National Merit finalists attending Princeton. My overall point is that Northwestern is increasingly attracting its fair share of HYP-type-level students and the higher the number of National Merit scholars it gets the more true this is.</p>
<p>I still don't really know why you are contesting this.
[quote=werner5482] I admit that Northwestern's 249 may not be directly comparable to Princeton's 179
This is a good sign, I guess. Another problem with comparing those numbers is that they do not account for freshman class size. If you look at the numbers in the form of a percentage of students, HYP still come out on top, even though, as I said before, the numbers are not at all comparable.
[quote] My overall point is that Northwestern is increasingly attracting its fair share of HYP-type-level students and the higher the number of National Merit scholars it gets the more true this is.
I don't contest this statement, but please don't use those numbers to imply that Northwestern is, for instance, "catching up" to Harvard, as if they are neck and neck.</p>
<p>as much as i like NU, i agree with ClareQuilty</p>
<p>ClareQuilty,</p>
<p>I am not familiar with the timing of the NMF/NMS. So unversity-sponsored NMS winners are annonced first? And since these winners already won the NMS designation through the university sponsored program, they won't be part of the corporate/officially sponsored NMS? Is that how it works and why you did the proportion (2500/15000 * 186 = 32) and added the 32?</p>
<p>If that's the case, I think what you did was pretty fair, IMO. </p>
<p>I've seen heated debate on this before; one group would say the total is the total and another group would insist only the officially sponsored ones count (does that number include corporate-sponsored ones though?), dependly largely if their own schools sponsor NMS (lol!). I've never seen anyone doing what you did and I would have come up the same calculation you did if I knew that's how NMF/NMS works.</p>
<p>Yes, I believe that is basically how the process works. As I understand it, once someone has reached finalist status, he is faced with the decision of whether to officially list as a first choice to the NMSC and then enroll in a sponsoring school (assuming he gets in), or to hold out for some of the prestigious non-sponsoring schools. If he chooses the first option, he becomes a school-sponsored national merit scholar. If not, he is sent through to the next round's selection process, which chooses the 2500 officially-sponsored winners (To get this far is extremely difficult). The whole thing is a complicated process, and I say this having gone through it myself. I think the proportion I gave is basically correct, because it would be the proportion of winners if no schools sponsored any national merit scholars. As for the destinations of the 1100 corporate-sponsored scholars, I have no idea, because that information is, as far as I know, not published. My calculation is not perfect (which is why I added 10 to my total just in case), because there are a lot of "what if"s involved, but I think it is roughly accurate-- if anything, it errs in favor of Northwestern.</p>
<p>National</a> Merit Scholarship Program - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</p>
<p>^I wish more people do the kind of fair analysis you just did on this board. ;)</p>
<p>But if I follow you correctly, to me, the number of people who hold out for non-sponsoring schools and choose to enter next round's selection process will be 15,000 less the number of students who choose the first option? So isn't that the "multiplying factor" in your calculation becomes 2500/(15000-X) where X is number of those that pick the first option? So that should make NU's number higher? ;) Actually, now that I think of it, there's a problem with that approach because if that 182 NMF didn't choose the first option, X would become smaller (X-182). </p>
<p>On the other hand, I can see how the ones that choose to hold out for non-sponsoring schools are probably a bit stronger (though it's splitting hair) as a group than the ones that list a first choice since the most of the nation's most desirable schools (e.g. HYPS) are non-sponsoring schools. I guess that's why you said the calculation likely errs in favor of NU.</p>
<p>But I guess one thing is certain: more NMFs than before listed NU as their first choice.</p>
<p>
[quote]
what? are you just quoting lines you remember from 11th grade statistics class?
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Um, no, it's a basic logical fallacy -- "cum hoc ergo propter hoc."</p>
<p>
[quote]
cum hoc ergo propter hoc
[/quote]
</p>
<p>I guess I remember my Latin (which I've actually never taken) a little better: </p>
<p>Post</a> hoc ergo propter hoc - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</p>
<p>
[quote]
This is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause. It is subtly different to the fallacy post hoc ergo propter hoc, which in requiring a chronological component may be considered a subtype of cum hoc.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Correlation</a> does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</p>
<p>(I wasn't taking chronology into consideration.)</p>
<p>Okay, a new phrase today. The relationship was temporal in this thread, but the original comment was more generally directed to associations that may or may not be causative.</p>
<p>
<p> [quote=ClareQuilty] please don't use those numbers to imply that Northwestern is, for instance, "catching up" to Harvard, as if they are neck and neck.
My point has always been that Northwestern has been increasing the number of HYP-type-level students. Since they have essentially doubled the number of both sponsored and unsponsored National Merit scholars they are obviously rising in the percent of these students in comparison with Harvard which has stayed fairly stagnant (having 312 in 2004 and 285 this year). Thus obviously by definition Northwestern is catching up. I never meant to imply that Northwestern was neck and neck with Harvard (Please show me where I said this, if I did then I was wrong).</p>
<p>Your analysis on the number of scholars Northwestern would have had if put in the same situation as HYP is admirable and interesting. But I stand by my previous statements. I am glad that you see that 63 cannot be used and the real number is likely to be over 100. The problem remains equalizing Northwestern's 186 school-sponsored scholars with an unknown number of finalists HYP, a difficult task. I would say Sam Lee sums it up best, "But I guess one thing is certain: more NMFs than before listed NU as their first choice." A trend that has been happening for the last several years.</p>
<p>The only problem I had with what you said came from this statement:
[quote=werner5482] My point has always been that Northwestern has been increasing the number of HYP-type-level students.
Again, I agree. But be careful when making such comparisons.</p>
<p>As far as I'm concerned, this argument is resolved, and there is little to be gained from discussing the point any further.</p>
<p>There is one thing to be added:</p>
<p>You can, as a finalist, change your first choice preference after hearing back from schools. For instance, I didn't get in to my listed preference. I did get in to NU. Switch! Money in the bank. The selections go in waves, but from my understanding (from having contacted the NMS offices, incidentally located in Evanston), the $2500 ones are all selected in the first round, with the other scholarships being doled out and selected in 2-4 waves following.</p>
<p>Signed,
An NU-sponsored National Merit Scholar</p>
<p>Well ClareQuilty, I guess we'll agree to disagree since I don't find my original statement "meaningless and misleading." Northwestern is attracting an increasing number of HYP-type-level students and I obviously think the rising number of National Merit scholars attending Northwestern (and the rising numbers in relation to HYP scholar numbers over the last few years) supports this.</p>
<p>ClareQuilty, I do not think you are correct when you state that students listing a first-choice college that sponsors NM Scholarships have "taken themselves out" of competition for the NMS direct-sponsored award of $2500. From the National Merit Corp website:</p>
<p>
[quote]
National Merit® $2500 Scholarships
Every Finalist competes for these single payment scholarships, which are awarded on a state representational basis. Winners are selected without consideration of family financial circumstances, college choice, or major and career plans.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Note it states that winners are selected without consideration of college choice.</p>
<p>I have always been under the impression that it is quite possible for a student who has listed a participating school--for example, Univ. of Chicago--to be awarded a one-time NMS $2500 award. In the case of that happening, the student can either reject the one-time award (in favor of the school sponsored award) or go to the univ. and ask it to make good on the remaining three years.</p>
<p>One bit of evidence in favor of my interpretation is that the NMCorp site you listed in an earlier post states that awards are made starting in March. My son changed his first-choice college designation at the end of April, when he changed his mind about where he was attending. It wouldn't make sense to start awarding scholarships on the basis of college choice well before the deadline for naming your first choice.</p>
<p>None of this changes your larger argument, however. It is probably true that, within a given state, those students who win one of the direct awards have a somewhat stronger academic record. Those students are probably more likely to apply to non-merit awarding schools.</p>
<p>
[quote]
I have always been under the impression that it is quite possible for a student who has listed a participating school--for example, Univ. of Chicago--to be awarded a one-time NMS $2500 award. In the case of that happening, the student can either reject the one-time award (in favor of the school sponsored award) or go to the univ. and ask it to make good on the remaining three years.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>If that's the case, how would Chicago count this person if he/she goes to Chicago? A regular NMS or university-sponsored ones? If it's the latter, then I guess some of the university-sponsored NMS are indeed part of the 2500?</p>
<p>I find making the distinction sort of ludicrous. I was honestly under the impression it was largely random at the point of finalist vs. scholar. Does anyone have proof contrary?</p>
<p>^i guess it'd be better to list just the number of finalists then and it'd be apple vs apple comparison. </p>
<p>as of now, the university-sponsored ones cloud the picture. it'd be unfair to include all of them but also unfair to exclude all of them if some of them are actually awarded the one-time NMS $2500 award.</p>