Of course applying to Wharton direct admit is much harder than applying to Penn, but if I was to get into Penn, how hard is it to get into Wharton after a year at Penn? (assuming I get good grades in my first year at Penn)
Very hard I assume.
It is much harder to get in as a transfer than it is to get in as a freshman.
Very few people successfully transfer into Wharton from a different school. If you want Wharton apply as a freshman.
If you want Wharton then apply to Wharton. It is next to impossible to transfer into Wharton once you are a student at Penn. Admissions is wise to the game of students applying to one part of the school and then trying to transfer to Wharton.
On the Penn tour the tour guide made it abundantly clear to the group that it is very difficult to apply to Wharton from another area of Penn, so that if you want to attend Wharton, you have to apply there in the first place. Very few people get to transfer in from other areas of the school.