Apply for PA or move to a private middle school

I have a 7th grader in a top public middle school. Her older sister was admitted to PA at 9th grade from the same public school 2 year ago (and doing well with most 6/A+'s if that matters). She obviously wants to try PA in the coming admission season. But we are now presented with an opportunity to go to a good private middle school for 8th and 9th grades, which is supposed to be a good stepping stone to go to private high schools in general including PA. Torn on whether to take that and wait one more year or just shoot for a simple path to PA.

Guess it comes down to the chance of getting into PA in the upcoming admission season. Her basic info is below.

6th year grades are straight A’s except an A- in PE and another A- in foreign language. Then it was a year of no grade in remote/hybrid learning due to pandemic. Honor level in an enrichment math class outside school. Practice SSAT estimated 93%-96%. Writing award in summer stone soup flash contests. Top runner in school xc team with captain (only 8th graders qualify) potential in coming fall season. public school xc program ranks top 1-2 in state. Is this profile good enough for a younger sibling for PA (will be full pay if that makes a difference)? Or should she play safe to spend 2 years in a private middle school first?

Would appreciate any insight.

What does she want?

She loves to be able to go to PA at 9th grade, without going zigzag. She visited her sister’s dorm before the pandemic and was very comfortable with people and everything there. I am just worried about what a negative outcome with PA would mean to a young teen, if the chance is not optimistic.

Well, getting into PA (or any BS) can be akin to winning the lotto. Predicting admissions is an exercise in futility.

If she is happy in the middle school where she is enrolled (and it seemed to prepare her older sister just fine) and she wants to stay where she is, then I’d leave her there and let her apply to PA for grade 9. I think it is extremely unlikely that a particular middle school would guarantee a higher rate of admissions in grade 10 given the above.

Her profile looks good. Siblings are a strong hook but there is no sure thing.

Tons of kids don’t get into their dream schools, she’s not fragile and you don’t need to protect her from normal disappointment.

I personally think entering in 9th is always preferable. I would not have a kid do 8/9 elsewhere and then enter in 10.

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Could do both -8/9 elsewhere, then enter as repeat 9th. Not right for all but for some.

A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush