<p>^ Well, at the most selective schools I think few have a 99% chance. We just don’t know what their chances are.</p>
<p>I don’t think so. because each school is an independent trial, the number of application doesn’t necessarily corellate with the number of acceptance. More, who says you get a 15% chance of getting in? The college admission process is not always random, and probability requires it to be random, the outcome will not fall into what you expect</p>
<p>^ You’re a little late.</p>
<p>statistics don’t work like that</p>
<p>^I was going by the assumption that we gave each other accurate probabilities in chance-me threads.</p>
<p>Hmmm…I do know this one kid in this year’s senior class who’s doing just that. His lowest-ranking school is, like, Rice. But his mom works there, his dad went to Yale, his coach knows a billion buddies at Columbia, and he generally just has connections all over the place.</p>
<p>Are you just going by what you’ve got?</p>
<p>
If you’re going to make absurd assumptions, at least choose something cooler than that. Why not assume that you can fly?</p>
<p>Because that would be too disappointing if I were to find out I can’t fly after assuming I could.</p>
<p>I think I’ve given accurate probabilities in all the threads I’ve chanced people in. I mean…you can’t really prove a probability is wrong…</p>
<p>I know someone who applied to 15+ reaches and 1 match. Got into half of the reaches and his match.</p>
<p>I’m applying mostly to reaches, but that’s because I will be going to college in another country if I don’t get into my top choices in the states.</p>
<p>The the most likely scenario is that I get rejected by almost everywhere.</p>
<p>I’m thinking of applying to Michigan though. Heard it’s hard to get in the later you apply so I don’t know if it’s a safe choice but it would probably be the only non-reach school on my list.</p>
<p>Great post!!! I can’t contribute much since it’s all been said already, but indeed, OP original premises only work with fair sided 'dii" however that’s not the case, and many students will be rejected whether they apply to all 20 reaches, or 2 reaches, and other’s will get accepted solid whether it’s 1 or 5 reaches.</p>
<p>^^ Are you a senior this year? If so, tomorrow is the Michigan deadline.</p>
<p>@noimagination</p>
<p>I know. I’ll be starting my app and submitting it today. I heard it’s almost imopssible to get in this late but I can’t imagine it being harder than my other schools so…</p>
<p>^ Test scores and transcripts are also due today. Good luck - you’ll need it.</p>
<p>Independent events are independent. You can’t apply basic probability into this, anyways.</p>
<p>Apply to the schools that you want to apply to, and only apply to schools that you would be more than thrilled to attend. The inherent classification of a school as a “reach” or “match” or “safety” is a moronic idea</p>
<p>^ I would say so too; why apply when you hate the school because you think you’ll get in, but what if one gets rejected to all of them? It is possible that you will receive an unsatisfactory outcome.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Uh… no?</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>Last year’s valedictorian applied to a bunch of ivies, UCLA, and UC Berkeley. Rejected everywhere except UCLA.</p>
<p>I know people who have applied to only one, two, or three schools total, and mostly ivies of those.</p>