Applying RD as a strategy to improve chances of getting in?

A student has been told by his guidance counselor not to apply ED2. The GC’s rationale is that the student will be competing with students who are better qualified than him. This student has a low GPA compared to the average GPA of students typically accepted at the school.

The school in question is one of a number of well known IT schools (not MIT.) The GC said the student has a better chance of being accepted RD because the overall RD pool is weaker. By waiting for RD, the student has a chance to submit stronger grades based on first semester of senior year.

The student’s GPA is about B+ average. The average GPA at the school is solid A to A-. The student has only three AP courses out of many possible AP courses to choose from at his high school. He is full pay. The student attends a selective public high school with a very good reputation. Naviance shows that he is solidly in the denied section.

I think this student’s best chance is to apply ED2. I’m not 100% sure, but it seems the college accepts most students who apply ED. Interested to see if others feel the GC’s strategy is better.

I lean towards applying ED2 as well, especially if the school is need aware/sensitive where full pay would be an advantage (but that would be an advantage in RD too), and this is the student’s top choice (did they apply EDI anywhere?).

The ED2 pool could be stronger, but we don’t really know, especially at an IT school. What we know for sure is that in RD fewer spots will be available for the class, and the school will be looking to fill the class with types of students they didn’t get in EDI/II. Neither we, nor the school, know what they will be looking for in the RD round.

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I think all of this strategizing obscures the facts that the colleges accept who they want- ED, ED2, RD and if a kid’s stats show him as below the bar- absent some really compelling facts you are ignoring, the kid is getting denied. I don’t think it matters when the kid applies if the kid is truly non-competitive.

Why would the college dig deep in an early round without having seen the rest of the pool? So best case- kid gets deferred into the regular pool. And then again- perhaps admitted, perhaps not, but that’s based on the KID, not on the timing of the application.

I’m assuming the student has a bunch of other colleges he’s excited about? Focus on those- not the Hail Mary pass college!

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If the record will be significantly better with the additional month or two of (improved) grades, the GC may be right. Not because he’ll look better against the pool but because he’ll have a much better record. Is that the case?

BUT

If the school is wavering on admitting him ED2, he’s likely to be deferred to RD. He’ll get to submit that improved record. He’ll then be compared to that pool. If he doesn’t stand a chance ED2, honestly, I can’t see that changing RD.

I say go for ED2 unless it’s a school that rejects rather than defers - which few do.

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Does the school accept most people who apply ED (say, taking 90% of applicants just to fill their seats early), or do they accept the bulk of their students selectively from the ED pool (maybe taking the top 30% beause that’s enough to fill most of their seats, but still rejecting 70% of ED applicants)? I think you’re implying the former, but I’m wondering if the situation is actually the latter.

As I was reading his stats, I though “It doesn’t matter when he applies. He’s not getting in.” One semester of straight A’s won’t bring his GPA up that much, and it won’t make up for not taking more AP classes early on (I have this issue with my own HS junior; it sucks that she didn’t challenger herself earlier, but it is what it is and we will be applying accordingly).

Sounds like Naviance agrees, but we aren’t AOs.

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No, his app wasn’t ready.

He is applying to a lot of reaches, I think under the mistaken assumption that one might work out. I believe he is adding some more colleges.

If you post the reaches, we can all suggest some neat alternatives that are a skootch easier statistically? Breaks my heart when a kid over-reaches when there are SO many great colleges out there!!!

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It’s okay, he has lots of schools to consider now. I was just interested in what others’ views were on the GC’s advice.

My thoughts and only 100% based on our school’s college counselor (private, strong reputation) - the school’s 2 college counselors are quite blunt and very knowledgeable - they have a pretty good pulse on where kids will get accepted and who else they are competing against from the school. Our school highly discourages applicants to schools that appear to be a high reach based on the applicants noncompetitive stats and redirect to right fit schools. Parents and kids don’t always follow their advice and go for it anyway. Parents then develop bad memories and are mad when their child is not admitted and they forget the college counselor had advised against the application.

If his school updates their Naviance regularly and he is not in the range (sounds like his public has decent college counseling), applying to a program in STEM as a male and not competitive - seems like it really is a “Hail Mary”. If they are all on board with it - then they need to do what they want to do.

Also, I have always thought ED2 offered by competitive schools tend to pick up very qualified applicants that were either denied or waitlisted at their ED school.

I think I agree with the GC.

A school might take a student ED who is closer to the border if they see an upside — a for-sure acceptance in the case of an ED applicant.

But here the school probably thinks it stands a great chance of getting an acceptance anyway because it is a reach school for a full-pay applicant. Which means an ED deferral.

If he applies ED and is deferred, will the shine and lustre of his application fade compared to the fresh candidates being considered for the first time? Maybe. In this case, I don’t think it is a mistake to wait for RD, prepare the best application possible, and spend the next few months improving grades and ECs.

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There are schools that are EASIER in the ED rounds because they want to lock in a chunk of their class, especially FP. Not the super super selective ones, but definitely ones that are good schools and far from slam dunks.

There are others that most certainly are not.

So outside of his particulars, I know of few that are easier in the RD round.

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Sounds as if he’s going to be denied no matter what he does, but if he has any chance at all, if they don’t take him in ED2 round, they’ll defer him to the RD pool and re-evaluate with his first semester senior year grades. So I don’t see any loss for him submitting it ED2, unless of course there’s a better ED2 option for him.

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Unless it’s a school that denies the majority of their ED applicants instead of deferring, I’d apply ED2.

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Is this a theoretical student?

No.

As I have said, I am interested in people’s views on this question.

I am having trouble following the GC’s reasoning. Are they thinking that schools will straight up reject applicants in EDII who have a chance to get in RD, instead of deferring them? That seems unlikely to me, so I would say there is no downside to applying EDII and possibly a big upside. If the student is rejected EDII, they weren’t gonna get in RD anyway, but that fact that they are willing to commit to the school by applying ED could be the factor that puts them in the yes pile when they would be rejected in the RD round.

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In my opinion this student needs to submit when they can present the best application, but as others have noted, a lot depends on the school. Will extra time allow for better grades/stronger essays? If so, given that the odds are low anyway. I would follow the counselor’s advice.

On a side note, I am struck by the number of people who rush off an EA/ED application and say the essays were only OK. I understand if there are merit considerations, etc. but it seems like submitting meh essays and a rushed application eliminates any edge, particularly with EA.

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I don’t buy that it would be easier to get in RD because the competition is less stiff. Even if this is true, any advantage would be negated by the fact that there are a lot more applicants chasing after fewer slots by the time you get to RD. Also, ED 2 and RD applications are usually due around the same time, so I don’t see how RD gives you any advantage in terms of raising your GPA. If the kid has what it takes to get in RD (unlikely given the Naviance results), I would think the worst that would happen is a deferral in the ED2 round.

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By the time you get to RD, the College Admissions office is in the final stages of “rounding out a class” - so they are looking for specific demographics and “skills” (like the orchestra needs a Tuba player) to fill.

ED is always going to be the best shot to gain admissions for a school, but unless there is something super compelling, an AD is not going to take a kid whose stats suggest they may not have great academic success at their school.

Not sure how you can say this without knowing the school. Source?