A few years ago when my older child was drawing up a list of schools to which to apply, we asked the guidance counselor for recommendations. One school in particular she said would be a likely for him, not a reach or safety. We toured it, he liked it and applied EA, but was denied. We were surprised, because he got into other, more selective schools. It just so happened the number of applicants to that school from my son’s class doubled from the previous year, and the GC explained they couldn’t accept everyone who applied from our high school. So the greater number of applicants from our high school was cited as the reason for his denial. I can’t think of any better evidence to support the assertion that college admissions can be a competition between classmates for seats at the same school.