<p>My point, again, is that there is a FIXED number of slots reserved for ED. The schools do not just wait around to see how many people apply ED, go through the apps and admit everyone they like, and then leave the balance for RD. They know before the admission season starts roughly how many slots will be filled by ED. </p>
<p>It is in the school’s interest to encourage as many students to apply ED as possible, and then pick the best applicants (with “hook” being part of “best”) from that pool. </p>
<p>So lets say there are 200 ED slots to be filled. If only 300 students apply, that’s not good for the school – but yes, “chances” for the weakest half would be improved immensely. If 500 students apply for those 200 slots, then the pool becomes more selective. If by some fortuitous circumstance 1,000 students apply, the school would be delighted - they’d snag the hooked applicants and the BEST of the rest, and they’d probably defer many students over to the RD pool. </p>
<p>The COLLEGE is always going to act in its own interest. The degree of selectivity of the ED pool will depend entirely on the overall number of applicants. </p>
<p>As to the SAT scores – there are at least 2 sittings for the SAT after the ED deadlines, and colleges report the best scores on the data sheet. You can’t compare a May 11th grade score on the same metric as a November 12th grade score, and you can’t look at scores as the single metric for admissions. Grades are particularly important for unhooked ED applicants – colleges routinely defer if there is any concern in that area. Even if you are looking at GPA + SAT together you have incomplete information, but at least you would then have better data than pulling out a single data point in isolation.</p>
<p>From data posted earlier on this thread, it appears that the test scores of **enrolled<a href=“as%20opposed%20to” title=“admitted”>/b</a> students during the RD round are in about the same score range as the ED admits. Colleges know roughly the score range that they are aiming for; I believe the book The Gatekeepers describes the ad com getting regular statistical updates throughout the process as to how the numbers were shaping up along the way. They probably do aim for a higher range in RD round, simply because they know that many admitted students will not enroll and that the enrolled score range will tend to be lower than the admitted range. I’m sure they’ve got it all figured out mathematically. But because we are looking at a median range and not an average, and because many more students are accepted in the RD round than the ED round, that does not translate into reduced “chance” of admission on an <em>individual</em> basis. </p>
<p>In other words, of the hypothetical 200 ED slots I mentioned above, lets assume that half have SAT scores of under 600 (on one test). That’s 100 below-600 scorers admitted to Hypothetical U, and median score of 600. Now lets assume that the school will admit 800 students in the RD round (to fill 300 additional spots, with an anticipated 37.5% yield). In this group, one third of the students have scores under 600, another third have scores between 600-700, and a third have scores over 700. Assuming even distribution of scores in the middle group, the median score of admitted students has moved up to 650. But, many MORE low-scorers have been admitted RD. (1/3 of 800 admitted students = 267).</p>
<p>IF yield on those low scorers is the same as yield for the high scorers, then 100 students with scores below 600 from the RD pool can be expected to enroll, matching the number of ED admits. But the data suggests that the overall score range is lower for enrolled RD students than admitted, so it is more likely that the number of RD admitted students with scores below 600 who do enroll actually is higher than the ED students who enroll - in other words, that for any enrolled student you meet who has a below 600 score, it is more likely than not that the student came from the RD pool.</p>
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