<p>If I've learned one thing this year, it's that it's not about the "stats". Especially at a small LAC, which is far more likely to focus on quality of essays, recs & other characteristics than a large university, which may be more numbers driven. </p>
<p>I think the mistake people make is that they assume that the percentile range of admitted students represents the overall strength of the applicant pool. That is, you see that your son's test scores put him in the upper 75%, and you assume that means he has scored better than 75% of the applicants - so of course you would expect him to get in. But that's not how it works: the college is looking for a variety of specific qualities, whether it is ability to write well, or ability to play a particular sport well, or to play a musical instrument, or help create a more geographically diverse student body.... or whatever happens to impress them. Their score range represents the spectrum of student they are willing to take. They are just as willing to take a student at the lower end of the range if that student has something other to offer that they value -- just so long as their overall score range is not impacted. </p>
<p>Let me share something my son wrote to explain this all to me:
[quote]
Just a reminder of how median works, it's different than an average or a mean, it's simply the middle number in a list. Let's say you're a big school and your trying to decide how to admit students and some people on the applications board say that they want test scores and some people are more concerned with extra curriculars and teachers' recommendations, so you decide to compromise and admit half your students based on good test scores (only over 95) and the other half based on completely other stuff. You'd get a list something like this:
35,41,46,53,55,59,63,65,67,72,73,77,83,85,86,87,89,91, 95 ,95,95,96,96,96,96,96,96,96,97,97,97,98,98,98,98,98,99
not surprisingly the middle number in this list is 95 even though the average is much less. Also note that by definition half of the scores will always be less than the median, but even if you scored much less than the median you could just be one of the very best scorers of the kids chosen for other reasons. If I were on a college admissions board and my statistics department was just down the hall, I think that I'd do my admissions something like this so that I could get a good mix of students but have it look like I was being super selective.
[/quote]
Unfortunately, I just learned this lesson this year, and only after my daughter was admitted to reach schools with scores in the 25% range. (And basically both my kids are mad at me for being such a worrier and a naysayer all year long). I am quite sure that need wouldn't factor into the decision to reject a kid who has very high test scores -- it is the lack of those "good mix" factors that would more likely account for it. Because although my son postulated a very wide range of scores in his hypothetical, it is more likely that in these competitive times selective colleges are deluged with kids scoring above the 75% mark, many of whom are using the colleges as safeties, and the school can easily afford to be very choosy among the high stat applicants. </p>
<p>Anyway, there are a lot of reasons that a kid can end up being turned down -- sometimes it can be a problem of being too good of a match for the school, in the sense that the kid is just like most of the applicants that the school sees. I think my son did well in the admission process because he was strong in math & sciences, but applying to many liberal arts colleges where students tended to be weaker in those areas - so he offered the school something that was less common in their applicant pool. He also had strong scores, and at the time I thought it was the scores that got him in everywhere.... but now that I have weathered seing a second kid with a different profile go through the process, I have a different view. My daughter has much weaker stats than her brother; admissions have gotten much more competitive; and yet she has gotten into colleges that are far more selective than the ones he was admitted to.</p>