@ekdad212 I’ll respond via a purely mathematical modeling perspective. Schools admit based on the number of actual openings (O) and a guestimate of the percentage of admits who ultimately won’t attend (W). So, the number of admits is A=O+W.
If for some reason the number of W’s is too high, then they won’t have enough incoming students to fill all the available openings (O). So, a waitlist is built as a buffer.
My kid got wait-listed at one of the best two UCs, accepted at the other, but that is literally a mile from our house. She thinks it’s too close. Might accept it and see if the other one gets her off the waitlist. We can hope.
@netsa1 She should be ecstatic she’s off a waitlist at one of the UC’s. Congrats because not many come off.
I don’t think she got off of either…the one she is in accepted her if I’m reading the post correctly. Too bad it’s not the one she seems to want, but congrats that she got in!
It would be interesting to see how many kids remain on the waitlist on May 2nd. The waitlists start out huge but how many kids don’t accept a spot or remove their name by May 1st to attend a different school? That piece of data might shine a light on why they are so big to start off with. And I am sure the admissions folks put a lot of kids on because a lot of kids are worthy of acceptance and they may have missed on a gem in the regular round. This can’t be an easy job. The number of applications is exploding and especially at the most competitive schools. And it seems like yields are starting to drift now too. To keep budgets, they can’t grossly under-accept and to avoid issues, they can’t grossly over-accept. So they are growing the waitlists, turning more to ED/EA and reducing the RA/RD accept rates. I will tell you this, it is going to get worse, much worse. This would make a great thesis topic in game theory. Because that is exactly what this has become. A game. Parents are gaming the system. The system is trying to adapt. The game changes. The parents adjust. And the cycle continues.
Not quite. Colleges also have to estimate yield. Let’s say Ye is the average expected yield over all admits (colleges probably estimate each admit’s yield differently, since those who were reaching are more likely to yield than those who were “overqualified” and have other choices), where 0 < Ye < 1. Then, ideally, O = A * Ye, or A = O / Ye. W is then set to provide a buffer in case actual yield Ya < Ye and they need increase the matriculated class. However, some colleges may intentionally use the waitlist and set A to be slightly less than O / Ye, and have a larger W, in order to avoid problems if Ya > Ye, but knowing that they are more likely to have to admit from the waitlist.
@Huskymaniac very well said.
I feel like we should see a lot more movement on waitlists because if it is true that there are less bodies applying to college, everyone can only go to ONE school, so these schools are going to try to fill their spots. Probably less waitlist movement at the top schools, but I would expect to hear kids getting off waitlists more.
With that said, I have heard of barely any movement and I feel like last year, even though it is before May 1st, I had heard of some waitlist movement by now.
But if more kids applied ED, then there might be less movement.
Impossible to predict and I agree, this is a great thesis topic. I’m really anxious to see where these waitlists end up!
I too think the new normal of extensive WL will create a trickle down movement into June. It’ll create a chain reaction, but how much movement there will be is unknown. Some kids even at top schools may switch top schools because of their WL situation. I think it’s interesting because by accepting fewer kids EA and RD, and more ED, schools can now hand pick to finish creating their perfect class of freshmen. And, some schools who are need blind in the earlier rounds admit to being need aware in the WL round. I see the schools scamming the system and modifying it big time.
Good points. The risk with waitlists is you might turn otherwise great, excited about your school, candidates off and while they may have accepted the offer had it been made on regular decision day, you might not get them from the waitlists. I also think kids start to get used to the idea of attending the school they committed to, and might even have a sense of loyalty to them because they “wanted” them. So it’s a bit risky for the school that are using waitlists to “handpick” (which I agree they might be doing!). But with long lists, the ball might still be in their court.
I’m glad I have this thread bookmarked. I hope people post as we hear of movement and where that movement is.
Presumably, most of the applicants put on the waitlist are either at the bottom margin of the admitted applicant ranking by the college (i.e. the least desirable of the applicants that could be admitted), so the colleges may not see losing many of them as that big a loss.
However, a college that waitlists “overqualified” applicants appearing to use it as a “safety” may be at actual risk of losing top end students who have that college as a top choice, but just did not play the “level of interest” game in the way that the college wants.
There is a report on the Rice board that Rice has started to make some offers to students on the wait list. Rice has not used the waitlist in years, but last year they overenrolled by 100 and they made 500+ fewer offers of admission this year (presumably to prevent overenrollment from happening again). When Rice used the wait list in 2015, they started making offers in late April.
I wonder if anyone is researching the impact this game is having on the mental health of these kids. Even from a young age, these kids are over-stimulated and put under pressure. Anyone that gets their kids into sports has to put them in at least three sports, running year round, or you are less of a parent and your kid is at a disadvantage. If they go the non-athlete route, the parents load their kids up with activities like scouting, dance, studying for the spelling bee, working on a science fair project and so on. Then they hit high school and it is all about class rank, proper ECs, proper community service, high test scores and getting into an elite college. Sure, the number of super-kids is increasing so I guess we have more over-performers than in the past. But at what cost? What happens to the kids that don’t get into their top choices, even after working like a dog and doing everything “right”? Waitlists are a consolation prize of sorts but I don’t think it is healing that wound. Kids aren’t kids anymore. They are machines that their parents program into high performing puppets that bring status to the family. That is, until they don’t. Does anyone care about the hell those kids are going through? Waitlists aren’t the problem. They are a symptom.
@Faulkner1897
That is a good sign. Hopefully that is the case at most schools this year. How are they notifying kids? Email or phone?
The person who got the offer said that Rice called them
@ucbalumnus wrote:
Not quite. Colleges also have to estimate yield. Let’s say Ye is the average expected yield over all admits (colleges probably estimate each admit’s yield differently, since those who were reaching are more likely to yield than those who were “overqualified” and have other choices), where 0 < Ye < 1. Then, ideally, O = A * Ye, or A = O / Ye. W is then set to provide a buffer in case actual yield Ya < Ye and they need increase the matriculated class. However, some colleges may intentionally use the waitlist and set A to be slightly less than O / Ye, and have a larger W, in order to avoid problems if Ya > Ye, but knowing that they are more likely to have to admit from the waitlist.
I actually have yeild taken into account (“admits who won’t attend”). The wait list is that buffer that (hopefully) allows the universities to pull up from the bench if their yield is too low. When the yield is too high, then the perverbial $h1t hits the fan if they have to recind offers. I would think this is program by program - and not schoolwide.
I think you and I are arguing the same point, but alas I am using CSU speak.
Interesting waitlist story from today
We were on a UC Davis Admitted Students Tour today. One student (Engineering) asked a question about waitlists and SIR. He shared he was on the UC Berkeley waitlist and was accepted at UCD. I think I heard him say that he has also been accepted at other privates.
So, when he was informed that if he signed his SIR (Statement of Intent to Register) and then got off the waitlist that they would lose their SIR money, the dropped off the tour a few minutes later. Just vanished.
I would be interested in knowing how much universities make on deposits from students who never show up after signing their SIR.
Incoming freshman have until May 1 to sign SIRs (UC system), waitlist accepts are released in June.
@SFBayRecruiter no school has a refundable deposit. unfortunately if you are on the waitlist, you will lose the deposit to the school you originally commit to.
@sdnfjlj87909 : it was not us, it was another person on our tour
Virginia Tech just started pulling people off the waitlist and offering admissions. Didn’t think it would happen so soon!
Cal Poly SLO’s waitlist is moving