@kibbles My kid sounds pretty similar to yours and we used exactly the same strategy. He was flat out rejected by the three top 25 universities to which he applied, but he did get into three ranked in the top 40 (2 with merit aid) plus a top OOS flagship school and a bunch of others. I am sure that expressed interest played a role. On the flip side, he was shot down by one school that I would have bet on as a sure thing. The wide net gave hime some good options, but I really wouldn’t recommend that students without impeccable applications waste too much time or money casting it toward the HYPSM end of the spectrum because those schools are going to be extremely long shots.
Agreed @sltxdad He did apply to one Ivy (ED) and was rejected back in November. It was a pie in the sky long shot and recieving a decision so early from his one “high reach” school allowed him to focus on his “matches” in the late winter/spring.
@scholarme, is that maybe for out of state kids? For in-state kids, those stats currently get you 6K off of tuition.
OP, your son sounds like my daughter. She also cast a wide net, applying to match and reach schools only if they looked like they could be affordable or offered big merit. That big merit though is really really competitive, and just as “reachy” as admission to the schools with the very low percentage admit rates.
One other thing to note. There were a number of schools that were borderline on affordability after running the NPC. One favorite looked doubtful, but I let her apply anyway, with the understanding that if the FA wasn’t good then she would not be able to attend even if admitted. We were very pleasantly surprised by the FA packages at several schools. Some that I thought would be more generous were not. My point is if the numbers look close or even doubtful, I wouldn’t necessarily rule a school completely out.
Edited to add that she also applied to several safeties.
Suzy100 maybe. I know they have a calculator where you can put your stats in and it pops out what scholarships you are eligible for. I think for certain stats they give you automatic money to bring it to in-state, on top of merit.