<p>Right now, for example, a U Chicago admit who doesn't qualify for financial aid is looking at $55k a year. Factor in living expenses, and travel, and that is easily $60k...PLUS the opportunity cost of foregone income!</p>
<p>I think $60k will be a huge psychological (as well as practical) barrier for those families with high income, but not much in savings (or vice versa) who won't qualify for need-based money.</p>
<p>But think about it. That's not really very far off. Tuition prices are skyrocketing. Take, for example, Hendrix: $18.7k in 2006 to 31.7k in 2011! An almost 70% increase! Now this example is likely extreme, but 4% seems like a conservative number. That places Chicago COA at almost $67k in just five years!</p>
<p>So, what do you all think? Will elite colleges soon become a place for only the wealthy and lower class, or do you imagine some solutions emerging in the near future? </p>
<p>Personally, I imagine that families in the 150k-250k income bracket will flock toward less prestigious schools where their children will get merit aid, as well as encourage community college transfers and trade schools. Spending $250k on an undergrad education is just absurd. 25 years down the road, if one can get 3% real returns, it will be worth twice as much. Why is it we tend not to think in terms of "optimal use" (opportunity cost) of our money when it comes to paying for education? I think it's because we are scared to death to deviate from the culturally dictated path for mediocrity...errm, I mean "success".</p>
<p>I think many public universities are already benefiting from this, as many families ask themselves why they would pay double for a private college.</p>
<p>What do you think of some sort of tuition “gradient”, decided by the college itself? Would that be more fair than the often arbitrary FAFSA EFC?</p>
<p>I think it would really be in the best interest of college “diversity” to have students of all economic backgrounds. creating a big divide between the wealthy and poor could create prejudice</p>
<p>@Vandy…Not quite yet, in my opinion. If I recall correctly, families earning less than $200k still have a decent shot at affording the ivy league.</p>
<p>Yes, I do think that a huge group in the middle and even those above $250,000 will be priced out or simply refuse to pay the high cost. In my opinion, there should always be some type of reward for merit.</p>
<p>What we are seeing in my part of the world is a huge increase in the number of higher stat kids applying to our state schools because they are affordable. Their parents either cannot pay, will not co-sign a loan or simply do not see the benefit of a higher priced college. We personally know of 3 kids with below “B” stats who in past would have been offered a spot are now being rejected from these schools.</p>
<p>Absolutely. Plus it’s not just double, now it can be nearly triple the cost. </p>
<p>We were truly impressed with some of the honors’s colleges that public universities are offering as well. Between two public honors colleges offers and several substantial merit aid offers, it was simply not difficult for our son to turn down the highest ranked LAC he was accepted too. We would have had to have believed that the education at that school was worth 120K more than the other schools. We simply didn’t believe that. </p>
<p>Now he’s doing beautifully at the University he did select and we are going to be in a position to help him with graduate school while still saving ourselves quite a bit of money. Win-win.</p>
<p>I think the better schools will be able to 'name their costs",and people will pay…I find it more offensive to see third rate schools charging what they do,20k plus per year for a mediocre education…they get away with this as the top schools and state flagships nearby charge 55k and 25k per year,so 20k looks affordable</p>
<p>Not going to disagree about diversity and the escalating costs of top schools…Ignoring that important fact,I would love to drive a Mercedes,but can’t afford one,so I get the best car I can afford…Students should do that also…</p>
<p>They priced out for our family two years ago when DD chose top-50 public research university and nice scholarship over top-10 and full pay. And I thank her frequently.</p>
<p>In my humble opinion most merit aid with the possible exception of the competitive competitions at various colleges is a form of tuition discounting. As long as they can get a certain number of full pays at whatever price they post - call if book rate, they can discount another chunk of students and come out financially ahead. They can call the admissions process “need blind” but the bottom line is they will price out at different tolerance levels and the decision is made in financial aid for different families.</p>
<p>It’s the “full pays” that control the market costs.</p>
<p>I think your theory sounds pretty good however I do not think the current trends back up the theory …</p>
<p>First, as the OP mentioned tuition has been increasing dramtically … and the number of applications has increased at an even greater rate … the top schools are getting swamped with applications.</p>
<p>Second, as MomofThreeBoys mentioned merit aid is being used to strategically provide discounts.</p>
<p>Finally, in these discussions people to talk about the “middle class” when talking about families making in the $150,000 to $200,000 range … when these families actually are in the top 5-10% of wage earners in the US … so if any group is getting cut out of college do to the high cost it is actually a relatively small slice of the population (and are high wage earners). I believe the top schools have more economic diversity than they ever have had.</p>
<p>(PS - I think as you move down in selectivity the theory may have more relevance at this time)</p>
<p>I don’t really have any previous years’ stats to do an accurate comparison, but…</p>
<p>Our state flagship offers all admitted students with a 33 or above on the ACT or (1440 M/CR SAT) the chance to apply for its top merit scholarships. (10 for $10,000 and oneo free rid. That’s right. One free ride in the whole state.)</p>
<p>The deadline to apply was Wednesday. The auto response indicated that over 350 students qualified to apply. The freshman class should be about 5,500 students. So about 6% of the freshman class.</p>
<p>I’m just guessing, but I’d say that’s another sign that top students are choosing state flagships rather than spend $200,000 on their undergraduate degrees. Many of our friends who would have never considered sending their child to a state school 10 years ago have totally changed their tunes.</p>
<p>“Many of our friends who would have never considered sending their child to a state school 10 years ago have totally changed their tunes.”</p>
<p>I’ve seen plenty of that too. Last spring when I was telling other parents that Happykid was headed to our local CC because it is what we can afford, more than one parent said, “That is a great plan! I’m encouraging MyKiddie to do that too so the Gen Eds will be cheap.” Even three years ago, that wouldn’t have been the most frequent response.</p>
<p>I think for top 20 colleges there is no ceiling. They could fill the classes several times with those willing to pay in full without compromising the school much.</p>
<p>Where I think we are fast approaching the ceiling is with privates charging $50K plus that are not of much note.</p>
<p>I think we’ll see schools priced in accordance with rank as the number of US candidates continues to shrink, and international will only pay up for the highly ranked.</p>
<p>I thought that $50K a year would have been the breaking point for college costs. That turned out not to be the case. There are more takers than ever for super-selective schools.</p>
<p>Along the same lines, I have been wondering - if a school took all their aid - need and merit - and simply reduced tuition, how much would that reduce the cost per student. Seems like their may be an opportunity there for a college.</p>
<p>Yeah, they eliminate the need group - but they draw in the low EFC group (like me)</p>
<p>Case Westeren Reserve University (Cleveland) seems to have emphasized merit $, and I hear their need based aid is not great. They draw a lot of very bright students who can attend for approx cost of a state school. We seriously considered Case but opted for a full tuition scholarship at a school my son preferred.</p>
<p>King Julian, I believe that if colleges could do that and still bring in the dollars they need institutionally and fill the class the way they want to meet their vision/mission they would.</p>