I think OP is asking where we would draw the line between “crapshoot, lottery, reach for everyone” and “reach for most.” I would say any college with a sub-10% to 10-15% acceptance rate (the Ivies and almost-Ivies) are an absolute crapshoot and a reach for anyone who is not Malala or Malia. Colleges with acceptance rates in the 15-25% range are also a reach for almost everyone but aren’t quite as unpredictable as the former group. Colleges in the 30%~ range are, in my opinion, where the “reach for literally nearly everyone” rule sort of fades out.