I agree that it depends on the school, but if what you’re asking is “at what selectivity percentage is it reasonable to assume that if my stats are at the higher end of the range and I have been thoughtful and thorough with the supplements”, I would say acceptance rate of 30% or higher.
Not a hard and fast rule by any means, but based on our experience and that of friends, it seems a little more predictable at that level. Most schools that have sub 20% acceptance rates will be harder to predict.
In my mind anything sub 10% is truly a reach for everyone.
Was that what you were asking?