<p>10 American Industries That Will Never Recover</p>
<p>Construction</p>
<p>Nationwide construction unemployment was 17% in August, up from 16.5% in the same month last year. Over the course of the summer, government statistics have shown sharp drops in the construction of new homes and apartments. Building permits are also down. Most large housing markets have more than 12 months of unsold inventory on hand. There is also a shadow inventory of unsold homes those that have gone into foreclosure but have not been put on the market by banks. Foreclosures and defaults are expected to rise another 3 million to 3.5 million this year.</p>
<p>The architecture profession has been hit like many others in this recession. However, I think residential projects are a small percentage of an architecture firm’s business. Schools, municipal and commercial buildings and corporate projects provide the bulk of their work.</p>
<p>“Schools, municipal and commercial buildings and corporate projects provide the bulk of their work.”</p>
<p>Those are not being built either. </p>
<p>“This is making me a little nervous :/”</p>
<p>You should be nervous:</p>
<p>For Many Unemployed Architects, School Beckons</p>
<p>Like thousands of architects today, Merritt Palminteri is out of work, a victim of the severe economic downturn. “Every single job we had last year was put on hold,” says Palminteri of her former firm, New York’s Anik Pearson Architect. Even though she saw the writing on the wall, it was no use: her headhunter was laid off, too. “It was kind of ridiculous,” says Palminteri.</p>
<p>the population continues to increase, and likely will for at least another generation. They need to be housed, and the houses cannot (at least now) be economically imported. houses over 50 years old (of which there are HUGE numbers) will need to be replaced or substantially renovated/rehabbed. </p>
<p>Housing construction/renovation WILL come back. The longer we build few houses, the stronger the comeback will be WHEN it comes. The greater danger is that no new construction for years will mean such a sharp boom, that it will make the boom bust cycle worse.</p>
<p>Also, the houses we will need in the future -sustainable houses in sustainable neighborhoods - will not well match what was built in 2002-2006 - mcmansions and exurban tracts.</p>
<p>Commercial RE - will recover when office employment recovers and financing is available. Same boom and bust considerations as above.</p>
<p>Public institutions like schools, etc. Will recover when state and local budgets recover.</p>
<p>As the dad of a prospective barch grad in 2015, I have two fears. One, the recovery in construction will not yet have picked up steam by then. Two, we will recovery sharply in 2012-2013, and then have ANOTHER bust by June 2015. </p>
<p>I think the latter - a sharp recovery before mid 2013 - is looking rather less likely.</p>