<p>@argand where did you get the 1300 number? If you’re looking at the difference in admission offers between last year and this year, remember the colleges only expect a percentage of the students offered admission to enroll. So the actual spots available to be filled from the waitlist will depend on how many students submit their SIR. I believe if that number is less than their target enrollment, they’ll start offering spaces from the waitlist.</p>
<p>Does anyone know how they will message you if you do get off the waitlist? Through email or on the My Berkeley Application? :O</p>
<p>I don’t see where it says that 100 out of state and 50 in state kids will be pulled off the waitlist. </p>
<p>They are the number of additional students Berkeley plans to ENROLL this year as opposed to previous year, 100 more out of state and 50 more in state students. How many they pull off the waitlist will depend on the number of SIR they get by May 1 to get to this number. They did not state how many students actually enrolled last year, but since they admitted less students this year, assuming the yield remains similar and doesn’t significantly increase from last year, it would appear there’s a good chance that many students will be accepted off of the waitlist. </p>
<p>Hey guys I looked up some numbers and did the math. According to the Cal article, the class size will be 4780, and about 12800 were admitted. Yield rates from past 2 years are 32% via this <a href=“http://diversity.berkeley.edu/undergraduate-students-new-freshmen-yield-rates”>http://diversity.berkeley.edu/undergraduate-students-new-freshmen-yield-rates</a>. Hence, about 4100 students will accept admission, granting us 700 spots from waitlist. Since there were 2150 who opted in the waitlist that means about a third of us will ultimately be offered admission. Hope this helps. </p>
<p>@swiftswimmer </p>
<p>I understand how you got the 700 number but I don’t believe that it is right. I actually expect at least half of the waitlist, if not all of it, to get in and here is my reasoning.</p>
<p>Remember that Berkeley knows how likely a student is to accept their offer of admission, that’s why they are confident in admitting over three times the amount of students they can take. Now, in order to reduce the number of admitted students from around 14,000 to around 12,800 I believe that Berkeley cut from the “bottom” group of applicants that would have otherwise been admitted if Berkeley had admitted 14,000 students again. This is very important. This means that Berkeley didn’t offer admission to the group that is most likely to accept it and instead placed it on the waitlist. The “top” group of applicants (i.e., the applicants who use Berkeley as a safety school and are really bound to go to an Ivy-level school) was still offered admission and, because more people applied overall, their weight on the group of accepted students is greater.</p>
<p>Since Berkeley admitted less people who are likely to accept their offer of admission and more people who are less likely to accept it, the 32% yield rate that has been seen under the old enrollment model cannot be applied to this year’s number of accepted applicants. I calculated that if the same percentage of total applicants who were offered and refused admission last year remains the same (about 14% of all applicants) then about 10,432 applicants who received admission this year will refuse it. This leaves around 2,363 applicants accepting their offers of admission and around 2,417 spaces left to be filled from the waitlist.</p>
<p>Of course, this is only a theory and is dependent entirely in my speculation that (a) the percentage of “top” level applicants remains constant over the years and (b) that Berkeley didn’t participate in any sort of yield-protection that would cut “top” level applicants from being admitted.</p>
<p>Please feel free to peer-review my theory and mention any faults or holes you see in it. Hoping for the best!</p>
<p>@simster7 @swiftswimmer </p>
<p>@simster7’s calculation of 700 is the likely the floor assuming @swiftswimmer’s theory is right (it makes sense)</p>
<p>but @swiftswimmer’s calculation must be wrong somewhere, the calculated 2417 spaces are even greater than all who opted in on the waitlist: if that is correct, Berkeley did not expand the waitlist large enough to generate enough that can fill the class. I don’t think the Berkeley admissions office could have made a mistake in not leaving enough on waitlist.</p>
<p>what is the ceiling?
the absolute ceiling is of course the entire opt-in waitlist number, 2150</p>
<p>we can estimate the ceiling based on last year’s number. We know last year they admitted 14,000 with the yield rate 32%. We also know that last year they ended up with too many students the could not handle, hence the change in practice of reducing the admission number by 1200</p>
<p>Therefore if they maintain the same target for enrollment, then 1200 is the ceiling assuming the yield remains the same. Since they already decided to add 150 slots in this year’s target enrollment (100 out-of-state or international and 50 in-state). So the ceiling is 1200+(150/0.32)=1200+469=1669</p>
<p>Conclusion: a number between 700 up to 1669 slots are likely available that will be drawn off this year’s waitlisted 2150 students assuming the same yield rate this year as that of last year.</p>
<p>The chances are pretty good, about 32% to 77%.</p>
<p>@william999 I don’t think they will be admitting a flat 1200 even if they admitted 1200 less. You have to take into account that 1200 * .32 (yield rate) is only 384 spaces that they actually expected to enroll at their school. </p>
<p>On the other hand, @simster7 's theory seems pretty good…</p>
<p>Bottom line is: none of us really know what Cal is going to do. It sucks how they did this to us…it’s hard for me to sleep at night!!</p>
<p>As for now, let’s all just yolo and hope for the best!</p>
<p>^^^^ “10,432 applicants who received admission this year will refuse it.” So according to your figure the yield for this year would be 18.5%. That seems very low. You are also over generalizing when you say Berkeley admitted the “top” group of applicants, the group least likely to accept their offer, in the initial pool of roughly 12,800. That is simply not the case. </p>
<p>Don’t forget, some students who opted in the waitlist have now moved on to other schools. I think the “safe” thing to do back when everyone received their letter was to say yes to the waitlist but meanwhile, many students have accepted elsewhere, had lesser schools offer scholarships, paid deposits, found roommates and moved on emotionally. While I understand the current waitlist has 2150 on it, I do not believe that 2150 kids are still truly waiting to say yes to Cal admissions.</p>
<p>^good point</p>
<p>^ That’s right. The other posters are forgetting that the waitlist yield is very low. If there are in fact anywhere near 700 to 1,600 spots available to be filled from the waitlist then 100% of the people that opted to be on the waitlist would be accepted not 32 to 77% like someone mentioned. Just because someone opts to be on the waitlist obviously does not mean they will accept the offer. </p>
<p>well maybe the yield is not that low but i’d imagine it would have to be less than 100%. Same logic applies, however. </p>
<p>oh man… the wait is killing me. i already have a friend who was admitted off the ucla waitlist. come on cal!!</p>
<p>@swiftswimmer How come your friend got notification already? I thought the schools will send emails to waitlist students after May 1st? Can you tell a little bit more on your friend’s case? Appreciate a lot!</p>
<p>^i don’t really know anything other than the fact that he got in today. </p>
<p>@MikeyChinlong I am an international applicant and I also get a friend who was admitted off the irvine waitlist just a few days ago. Schools may not always necessarily send emails after May 1st. I think when they see the yield rate is lower than expected, It is always a better thing to inform your admission as early as possible, even before May 1st.</p>
<p>Hope cal can soon start admitting off the waitlist 
, otherwise I would probably have changed my mind</p>
<p>I spoke with a women from admissions today. She stated that they hoped to “see some movement off the wait-list” this year. <em>fingers crossed</em></p>
<p>did she say when results will be out? @mockingjay0714 </p>
<p>I really hope they have some good financial aid packages for OOS students… I would rather go to Berkeley than UMich for Chemistry, but the cost of UMich in-state is MUCH cheaper than it would be to go to Berkeley. I can only hope that ultimately cost won’t be an inhibiting factor in my decision if I get off the waitlist at Cal :)</p>