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Since their own institution's undergrads are likely overrepresented in their own grad school applicant pool, we actually don't know whether it's statistically advantageous to have gone there as an undergrad.
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<p>Harvard alums do well across the board at other top PhD institutions, same with MIT grads, not just at their own institutions. </p>
<p>There is certainly some referral bias, i.e. applicants from the most selective colleges apply in greater numbers to the most selective PhD programs, which is to be expected. Logically, students will apply to PhD institutions where they have a reasonable likelihood of acceptance. </p>
<p>As far as the declining share represented by the top institutions, according to the study it is mostly attributable to the vastly increased number of foreign students as well as the overall reduction of students at elite colleges seeking PhDs. </p>
<p>It is not as if students from the most selective colleges are being displaced by students from less elective colleges. Actually, the spread is increasing not increasing. The study showed a drop from 62% to 56% of students at the most selective colleges earning a PhD from the top institutions a 9.6% decline. At the same time the proportion of students in the next category of highly selective colleges dropped from 44% to 37%, a 15% decline. </p>
<p>So while it is getting harder for a student at an elite college to get into a top PhD institution (because of the foreign influx), it is getting even harder for students from less selective colleges. The authors explanation is that the quality dispersion at elite colleges had narrowed dramatically since 1970, much more so than at second tier colleges. SAT scores across the board have been rising much faster at elite colleges. Many students who would have been admitted a decade or two ago are simply not making it today. </p>
<p>As selectivity at elite colleges has accelerated in the past decade, I am willing to bet that the share of students earning PhD at top institutions from second tier colleges is continuing to decline faster than at first tier colleges. The average Harvard, MIT or Swarthmore student is a higher performance student today than a decade ago.</p>
<p>As far as post-docs getting tenure track positions in academia, the overwhelming majority earned their PhDs at top programs.</p>