I’ve talked about opportunity with my kids since they were five. Call me a geek. The opportunity cost of a piece of cake is ice cream. You choose one and give up the other. We moved to discussions of opportunity cost with time and money. For college, set a max budget and did not apply to schools above that price based on each school’s NPC. We ended up turning down substantial merit but not hitting our max budget either. Daughter also is responsible for $4,000/year to have skin in the game. She can earn it or borrow. Her choice.
There was always a preferred school (she was rejected) but never a dream school. Our safety changed late when we all agreed that the safety school was not a good choice and we found another option with late applications and substantial merit. I recognize all people can’t do that.