Calculating Reach, Match, Safety?

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I can’t tell if we agree or disagree.</p>

<p>Here’s what I’m asserting-
You know that at least 25% were above. That doesn’t imply to me that exactly 25% were above. That’s what I’m asking. Does it mean exactly 25%? If so, where do you see that defnition?</p>

<p>Assume this score distribution -</p>

<p>200 200 200 500 500 500 501 501 501 501 501 501</p>

<p>Aren’t 25% of these above 500? Actually, the top 25% is above 500, but so is the top 50%.</p>

<p>For example, here’s an old Caltech CDS. Top 25% Math at 800 -
<a href=“http://finance.caltech.edu/documents/13-cds2003.pdf[/url]”>http://finance.caltech.edu/documents/13-cds2003.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Does that mean that no more than 25% scored above 800? I sort of doubt that.</p>

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<p>Not all low admission rate schools are automatically reaches.</p>

<p>[Top</a> 100 - Lowest Acceptance Rates | Rankings | US News](<a href=“http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/lowest-acceptance-rate/page+2]Top”>http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/lowest-acceptance-rate/page+2) lists CSU San Bernardino with an admission rate of 19% and CSU East Bay with an admission rate of 22%. But no one really believes that these schools are as difficult as or more difficult than Berkeley (22%), UCLA (23%), or USC (24%) for admissions.</p>

<p>There’s also no way of knowing how schools assess lopsided scores. I had a son applying to tech schools with an 800 CR score. Did he get any brownie points for that? He didn’t have an 800 in math and so was out of the top 25% at Caltech despite only making one careless mistake on the SAT. Meanwhile my non math guy, probably did get a considerable boost from his almost 800 CR score at a very different set of schools and may well have gotten forgiven for his solid (but not stellar) math score, which was in the very bottom of the middle 50% in most of the schools he applied to.</p>

<p>California is so unique.<br>
Lopsided is a core issue here. When you see 25% scored, eg, CR 750+, you have no access to what those kids’ scores were in the M test. Could be that, overall, these kids came in at 1500. Could be otherwise. Maybe it’s 750/600- but the kid was an obvious keeper based on the whole. You also don’t know how kids aiming for your major tended to score. Plus, these are nearly always for matriculated students. </p>

<p>I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to look at more than stats.</p>

<p>When you are thinking about reported SAT and GPA ranges, remember a few things:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>They report the range of the enrolled class, not the admitted class. Most colleges have only about a third or less of the students they admit enroll, fewer if you exclude Early Decision, even the most selective schools, other than HYPS, only land about half of their non-ED accepted students. And, guess what?, students with higher stats tend to have more options, so the stats of the admitted student group tend to be higher than the stats of the enrolled group. A few colleges break this down, and the difference is actually a little less than I would expect, but that may be because they are among the higher-yield colleges. In any event, you should reflexively add 10-20 points of SAT score on each test, and a point or two of GPA, to the reported 75-25 range to estimate the range for admitted students. Which is after all what you care about.</p></li>
<li><p>The smaller the college, the more the bottom 25% is likely to consist of special cases – recruited athletes and the equivalent. NESCAC colleges with 350 in a class and a full range of varsity sports, plus a strong commitment to ethnic and economic diversity, can have well over 25% of the class admitted on a basis that makes numbers relatively unimportant. That doesn’t mean all the special cases have low scores or grades – many/most of them don’t – but it means you can’t trust the bottom 25% as a relevant indication of the range for students who are “normal” applicants. On the other hand, large universities probably have more special admissions than NESCAC schools, but they are a drop in the bucket given the class sizes involved. Michigan State’s bottom 25% represents students who are comparable to most applicants.</p></li>
<li><p>With very selective colleges, the fact that students with high test scores and GPAs are accepted at a higher rate than other applicants does not mean that test scores or GPA are actually very important in making admissions decisions. If 15% of students with 2350+ SATs are accepted, and 8% of a much larger number of people with 2250-2340, that doesn’t look like anyone is being accepted based on their SATs. They are being accepted based on other qualities that correlate roughly with SATs, and if you have the SATs but not the other qualities you won’t be fooling anyone.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>ErinsDad - can you please tell me how to access the common data set. I have tried. Is it available for all schools? Thanks.</p>

<p>It’s not available for all schools. Some, particularly some private Us, don’t publish the data. But here is the CDS for pepperdine (the first listed site in this google search).
<a href=“common data se pepperdien - Google Search”>common data se pepperdien - Google Search;

<p>@Bovertine, notwithstanding the inability to score a 501, IMO the 25/75%iles would be 200 and 501. It’s true that more COULD have scored at the same 25% or 75% but it’s doubtful there would be a significant number.</p>

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<p>Why? To me that’s just an assumption. We have absolutely no way of knowing with the information provided. What is more unlikely, at least to me, is that it is exactly 25%. What would be more accurate information would be to list the various score levels and then list the percent of students scoring above those levels. Which is what they did in the old Cass and Birnbaum, and what a handful of schools, like Brown for example, still do.</p>

<p>BTW - if we’re going to throw in irrelevant commentary about the 501 score, I didn’t write it was an SAT score distribution. I just said “score distribution”. If it makes you feel better, assume it’s the distribution on a test where you can score 501.</p>

<p>From JHU: The “middle 50th percentile” refers to the range within which the middle half of freshmen admitted for fall of 2011 scored.</p>

<p>Not the mid-range in scores, but for the kids enrolled. Eg, if 2000 were admitted, what was the CR range for the middle 1000 kids.</p>

<p>@Bovertine, I agree that it is unlikely the percentage above and below those numbers is exactly 25%, but I also think if it’s 24 or 76% it doesn’t make much difference. The numbers are there to be used as measuring sticks. If you want to get into the dirty details you can always try reading through the CB forum for the CDS. [url=&lt;a href=“http://www.cblist.org/read/?forum=cds]Messages[/url”&gt;http://www.cblist.org/read/?forum=cds]Messages[/url</a>] School IR offices post questions there to help each other be consistent.</p>

<p>As far as the 501, I commented only because the number stood out and we were talking about SAT percentiles.</p>

<p>^^^
Okay, I agree all that is likely true.</p>