<p>Total candidates Accepted = 2525
Accepted in ED = 545
Accepted in RD = 2525 - 545 = 1980</p>
<p>The ED ones will, of course, definitely enroll.</p>
<p>Total size of Class of 2010 = 1450
Enrolled through ED = 545
Enrollment required by Brown through RD = 1450 - 545 = 905.</p>
<p>This implies that even if Brown achieves a 45.71% yield, it’ll be able to fill its freshman class. And I read on CC that Brown has a yield of 59%.
So is it the end of the road for the wait-listed or have I missed something?</p>
<p>I'm assuming that it remains the same as in previous years.
mgcsinc:
You are correct. Brown needs a yield of 45.7% in the RD while its average for the past few years has been 46%. Sigh.</p>
<p>They have pretty good models to predict yield. The tough thing for them is the fact that the population changes every year - kids apply to more and more schools resulting in more and more cross admits thereby lowering everybody's yield. Thus there is reason to hope that their estimate is high. So let's say that every kid applied to 10% more schools this year. If nobody adjusted for this, all yields would be down 10% I suppose. So best case, Brown yield would be 53% instead of 59% which would mean 150 kids in off of the wait list - a wait list of 2000? I have no idea how big the wait list is. </p>
<p>Absent some unaccounted for change in the stats, it is hard to get in off the waitlist.</p>
<p>I spoke directly with an admissions officer about Columbia's waitlist this year (my son was waitlisted at columbia, but was admitted to brown and is going to brown). He said that they have absolutely no idea whether they will go to the waitlist or not, and if so how many they will take, because it totally depends upon the yield. each year is different.</p>
<p>also, many kids sending in their cards to Brown are on waitlists at other schools. There will be a cascade of withdrawls and waitlist admits at the beginning of may as say, a kid waitlisted at Harvard coming to Brown gets in, so he pulls out, then Brown goes to the waitlists, lets you in, you pull out from your other school, which now has to go to it's waitlist, etc.</p>
<p>Remember though, that this shuffling won't be on a very massive scale, given the fact that a ridiculously low number of kids get off waiting lists at HYPSM and other top ivies (the only group where people going to Brown would withdraw from Brown to go to).</p>
<p>remember the waitlist isn't a massive scale either.</p>
<p>There are what 500 active people? I'd say at most half of those are serious contenders, and if there are 5 people at accepted to Brown on the waitlist at each HYPSM, that's 25 spots that could open up.</p>
<p>The shuffling isn't very big. Since Brown is something like 6th on the "revealed preference" list, and since most schools "higher" than Brown don't take many kids off their waitlists, most kids who say they're coming to Brown actually end up coming there. I wouldn't overestimate that aspect.</p>