Caltech EA - how much of admission boost it can give over RD; and chance

Colleges and Universities A-Z California Institute of Technology
1

Hi,
DD20 sent most of the required material for EA - but didn’t submit the app yet. Seems like they extended the deadline to Nov 8th and she is thinking of submitting now.

Wondering how much of a boost - if any - does EA app has over RD? Reading through forums, understand that it may not be a big boost except for hooked students. DD is not a hooked student (average excellent student with good scores and reasonable ec’s and research background) - essays are average as she rushed through them. Wondering if she should rather wait for the RD and polish the essays more or send the app now. Any thoughts?/advice? thanks.

BTW stats:
SAT: 1590; SAT-2’s: 800’s in 3 (math, phy, chem)
GPA: 3.8UW; 4.88W; top 5% of 500
Leadership roles in math/science/stem clubs; varsity sport; state level wins in math/hackathon/science-fairs. all state-level. 2xAIME qualified. Research with a college prof (attended couple governor school research programs earlier) in math. No paper yet but will not get a paper even in RD. She may get a reco from the prof during RD - in EA she will not (as prof is out of country). She is submitting a paper in Dec - she can quote this but it will not be accepted/published. Given this info, which is better EA or RD?

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I don’t think EA is a boost. What’s nice about it is that Caltech EA results come out earlier that most comparable schools, so if she’s accepted the stress level goes way down. But a letter from the prof may be a big deal if the prof was suitably impressed with her, so in this case I’d wait. She also should upload the whole paper in the application, so if it’s not ready this may be another reason for waiting.