Can a rejection from one school predict the decision from another?

I know a lot of people who (after getting a rejection letter) will say “If I can’t even get into <strong><em>, there’s no way I’ll get into </em></strong>_.” Does this idea have any merit?

It certainly has some merit. Schools are looking hard at grades and test scores, and more selective schools have pools of applicants with higher scores you are competing against. So if you don’t get into a less selective school, odds are you aren’t going to have much success with a school with a stronger pool of applicants.

But you will read exceptions out here every year of a kid who got rejected from Wash U, for example, but got into Cornell. If the lower ranked school gets a whiff of the fact you are considering them as a safety, they may reject you. Colleges want to accept students who will actually attend, so they are trying to figure out whether a student is really serious or not about the school.

Zero merit to it. I know one kid who got rejected from a #3 school (and that came first) , yet got into two #1 schools and a couple other top 10 schools. Basically the fit was not right and the school knew that. All the kid’s scores were in 65 - 80% range, so they had a good a chance as any because they were above the average.

I disagree that there is “zero merit”. There are definitely exceptions – I am sure anecdotes will come out of the woodwork on this thread… But I bet if you looked at a large pool of applicants, the pattern would be pretty clear based on test scores and grades. Also… I don’t know how you could have “two #1 schools”, @awcntdb. And, at most schools 65-80% range would be a C to B- student – those students aren’t going to top ranked ("#1" or “#3”) schools.

@intparent When I said 60 - 80% range I meant of the colleges’ average SAT and subject tests scores, e.g., where the middle 50% SAT score was 2180 the kid was 2240 and subject tests were all 790s and 800s. Last year only a few schools had higher averages. Last year, 2012 - 2013, Harvard and Princeton were tied for #1 in USNWR, so there were two #1 schools. Five years ago before that Williams and Amherst were tied at # 1 for a couple years too. So based on the major ranking used by students, two #1s did occur.

Ah, got it. When you are looking at the top 5 schools, results are unpredictable, just because everybody has great stats and there are so many applicants. But I doubt anyone is saying, “If I can’t even get into Princeton, there’s no way I will into Harvard.” And I don’t have a lot of sympathy for them if that is what they are worried about (1st world problem…).

In my personal experience, no, if the applicant is qualified.

I ask this because I was rejected from UNC but hope to get into Kenyon. 29 ACT/12 writing, 3.7 GPA, 4.6 weighted, African American

But being the kid, it was still a stunner for them. Rejected from #3, thought no hope for higher ranked schools. However, that was so way off base. Yes, little sympathy because at that level high scores are only an invitation to get looked at more closely. Fit is so important to schools that unless the entire app is read, the scores mean nothing much.

UNC is harder to get into out of state than Kenyon is.

i’m going to say no, from my personal experience. I was waitlisted at Occidental but got into Emory and Georgetown

Well when I got rejected from MIT I kinda assumed Caltech was a no (just because Caltech is even more stringent on SATs, and apparently their SAT 2 Math 2 range is from 800-800 O.O).

No. I know a lot of people who got wait listed at certain schools but accepted at more elite schools. However, if the person applying has say a 29 on the ACT and a 3.4 GPA and they say “well I didn’t get into UPenn, so I won’t get into Harvard”, they’re probably right. It just depends on the reason they didn’t get in. If it was because their test scores were just way too low, then that is a good basis of measurement. If their test scores are in the range and they didn’t get in because of a subjective factor, then no that reasoning is unfounded.

I was rejected from Clark, then accepted into UNC Wilmington, then rejected from UMass Amherst.

So, no.

I know someone who was rejected from Dartmouth ED, but was accepted to Columbia RD