Can someone help determine my chances at UCR?

Currently, I am a sophomore in High School (soon to be Junior).

Freshman year I had roughly a 3.8 academic GPA. However, at the start of my Sophomore year, I was dealing with some personal problems which impacted my success in school until about a week ago. My cumulative GPA dropped to around a 3.4 because of my Sophomore year GPA of 2.96.

But I realized I have made a mistake and now I am going to try and do everything in my power because I know next year I can ace nearly all of my classes. I plan on taking AP Environmental Science, AP US History, English 3, Statistics, French 4 honors, newspaper, and yoga (I need pe credits). Now assuming I get an A in every course both semesters, with the exception of French (because it’s so hard), I could possibly shift my UC GPA to around a 3.56 and my cumulative GPA would be around a 3.76. I have yet to take the actual SAT/ACT but I have my prep scores which give me a good idea of what I would get on the actual test. I am also considering taking a semester of AP Bio through UC scout this summer, which I was told could boost my UC GPA around 0.05- 0.1

PSAT- 1250/1600
PACT-26
My Soon To Be Weighted GPA (10-11th grade)- 3.60

For EC’s I have around 55 hours of community service. I am a published writer for a few online newspapers/blogs and am published in our high school paper as well. I am also part of a sport which requires a lot of time commitment (16 or more hours of practice a week). I have been varsity for two years now and I feel the high amount of time I have dedicated to this sport would really stand out to colleges.

UC’s only use 10-11th grades in their GPA calculation so you need to complete Junior year to see how you stand on your UC GPA. UCR will use your capped weighted UC GPA which is a maximum of 8 semesters of Honors points for UC approved Honors/AP/IB or DE classes taken 10-11th grade.

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Your PSAT/PACT scores indicate that you are within range for UCR based on 2017 stats but as the UC’s continue to become more competitive, you will want test scores and your GPA to be at least at the 50th percentile or higher.

2017 Stats for UCR are below and 2018 Freshman admitted stats will be available in August. Intended major can have a huge impact on your chances especially for STEM majors.

GPA and test scores of middle 25%-75% students

High School GPA UC capped weighted: 3.60 - 4.04 50th percentile: 3.82
ACT Composite Score: 23 - 30
ACT English Language Arts: 22 - 28
SAT Evidence Based Reading & Writing: 550 - 640
SAT Mathematics: 540 - 670
SAT Essay: 14 - 18

UCR’s application review criteria:

  • Riverside
    *
  •   Very important: Academic GPA, Application essay, Rigor of secondary school record, Standardized test scores
    
  •   Considered: Character/personal qualities, Extracurricular activities, First generation college student, State residency, Talent/ability, Volunteer work, Work experience
    
  •   Note: A fixed weight point system comprehensive review model that culminates in an Academic Index Score to determine admission for incoming freshmen.
    

Also, it is great to show dedication to a sport but unless you are recruited athlete for that sport, it is just another EC.