Thanks for all the replies.
I appreciate the differentiation between the two scenarios. On the first one, the school was a contender. Her list was quite the eclectic mix. Early on my friend said she could apply ED to the elite LAC. Later, the stance on that was changed - not sure why. I am guessing because friend decided no desire to pay that much. I have no idea if they offer merit. I don’t know much about elite LACs. Anyway, friend pulled that option, and daughter did not apply ED there. These are well-informed parents, and this is their second time through the process. She does not go to an elite private high school (she is at a large public that sends most students in-state), so no one on the school side is asking her to keep the app open for admission stats for her high school. I guess I can understand the wanting-to-know aspect since she has put the work into the application. I asked my friend if she was going to want to go to the elite LAC if she gets in. Friend says they have discussed, and she knows at this point it’s just to see how it all turns out. It is absolutely ego on the part of my friend (no idea how the daughter feels), but I do wonder what will happen if she gets in and then wants to go. I do not know if she has deposited yet at the Big State U.
As to the second case, it’s just such a head-scratcher to me. I do not know this family (as I said, friend of a friend), but the kid did score a 35 on the ACT as a 9th grader. Obviously, that doesn’t guarantee anything at a reach school, but it’s not like it’s only speculation if he will at least be in range.