“I know several people who just think “it will work out” when Johnny gets into an $80k reach.”
Those are anecdotes, and the data shows that most people that apply to $80K reaches can afford them. These colleges are usually 50% full pay, and assuming a 70% yield, would mean that 70% of the applicants are full pay. Of the remaining 30%, a majority are right below the full-pay income/wealth. You’re only looking at 11-12% of the applicants that hope it works out if they get in.