The expectation as to what a parent is willing to pay changes when there is an acceptance in hand. Sometimes it is not merely the acceptance – the prestige school might also have special programs geared to a student’s interests, and the admission might come with an invitation to a program they either didn’t know existed or weren’t aware that they were under consideration. Or maybe it isn’t special, but at the time of admission the student receives an email or brochure from a specific department, describing opportunities they offer in an enticing way.
Most families that don’t qualify for need-based aid at the elite schools (where need-based aid tends to be quite generous) do have the resources to pay, they just don’t want to.
But it’s one thing to say “Harvard, Shmarvard” during the time frame when admission seems about as likely as winning the lottery – and quite another when the admission offer becomes a reality. Then instead of thinking, “why pay $80K a year when our kid can do fine at our great in-state U. for less than half the cost?” the thought process shifts to, “would we be denying our precious child the chance of a lifetime?” – and priorities change.
I think the big mistake is assuming that the pre-admission chatter of friends reflects their true, inner feelings. You may very well turn around one day and see that the offspring of some of those parents are heading off to the very colleges their parents once insisted were out of contention.
Keep in mind that it’s a lot easier to tell one’s friends early on that the decision has been made in favor of Big State U then to face a barrage of inquiries from curious friends the same week in April that the child has been disappointed by a slew of rejections. Since the most likely outcome for most applicants is either a rejection or a waitlist – it can be a smart move for the parents to announce early on that the elite school is out of contention.
Also, and I speak from direct experience here: it is a LOT easier on the parent-child relationship if the parents downplay their ability/willingness to pay early on. No child will ever complain if their parents suddenly come up with the funds post-admissions – and it probably does protect the child’s ego somewhat in the event of rejection to believe that the parents wouldn’t have paid in any case.