That would be a “bust” if one is depending on it as a career, but it may be ok for someone whose career is something else to earn a living, but enjoys doing it as an “extracurricular”.
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It seems likely that parents on CC have kids who are heavily overrepresented in the top 5% of high school students. It wouldn’t surprise me if most might therefore hope for their kids to be amongst the top 5% of adults in terms of career success. However that may not correlate precisely with earnings and I expect those with what you might describe as “society defining” careers are far rarer than 1 in 20 adults.
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The distinction between earnings and “society defining” is a significant one. As a software engineer I do quite well, but I’ll never get the respect that an MD or a professor is going to get. That’s fine with me. I define “success” as being able to support yourself with honest work that you enjoy enough to keep at it. Anything beyond that is a bonus.
“Bust” means my days of parenting continue indefinitely with kids who cannot quite support themselves and the situation only changes when I am feeble enough that the tables turn and they become my caregivers. That’s a super-depressing thought. (Though maybe that is normal and the nuclear family is the myth.) Do I worry about it? Eh, I don’t know I have watched my siblings reinvent themselves enough times that I don’t think it’s sink or swim for anyone. This is supposed to be the land of 2nd, 3rd and 4th chances. But I also think it’s tougher now for this generation than it was for boomers and so-called Generation X.
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In all fairness I think few jobs are “society defining” - it’s a rare person whose career is that noteworthy. I think we all worry about what the future holds for our kids - so many types of jobs have gone by the wayside it is hard to give really solid career advice. Who knows what careers are going to be reliable and attractive - it seems to be always shifting. My older kiddo (jr in HS) doesn’t have a strong idea of what he’d like to do but doesn’t want “an office job.” He’d like to write but is aware that is a tough career choice. He’ll most likely study the humanities. It’s what he excels at so there is no sense in trying to jam him into a STEM career where he’d never be happy. He does have outstanding interpersonal and communications skills so there is that . . . . It’s a tough time to be young adult, that is for sure.
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I may be unusual, but I’d rather see my kids aspire to one of those “society defining” non-STEM jobs, if it’s something they love, and worry about the money later. If they fail then find a plan B.
So I think that’s what my older kids intend to do. But they’ve been brought up in a household where both parents took that approach and one succeeded while the other didn’t. It’s all worked out fine for us, but they can see that it is hugely dependent both on luck and simply taking a risk when an opportunity presents itself without knowing how it will all work out. Hopefully the biggest thing they’ve learned is just to embrace serendipity.
Obviously there’s a huge advantage in having a family that can support them if necessary, and I can see why other families who have been buffeted by economic insecurity would prioritize stability instead. But the risk taking mentality that has driven the US economy is something that is far more common here than in other countries, and I hope that it won’t just be kids from wealthy backgrounds that feel they can take those risks in the future. It is very depressing to read surveys of how many people now feel that the economy is stacked against them.
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I don’t think it’s unusual at all to pursue prestige over money, but my own experience makes me reluctant to recommend that anyone go for prestige. I was a student through age 30 and actually as a CS grad student did a lot better financially than those in other fields. I enjoyed living modestly and had no use for a car, a decision that made it possible to save on a stipend rather than living hand to mouth or going into debt.
And all this is fine, but beyond this point, particularly in less remunerative fields, a lot of people wind up interviewing for longshot faculty positions, doing repeat postdocs, or scraping by as adjuncts. It was an incredible relief for me to break out of that and go for big, open opportunities instead of competing with other very capable people for very few openings.
In my experience, it’s easier just to make a lot of money than to climb whatever mountain you set out to climb when you were young and idealistic, and apart from those who reach the peak (or even the upper climes) it’s just an on-going process of self-punishment, comparing yourselves to others in the same rat race. Who needs that? Sure, the people who will eventually make it, but they are by definition in the minority.
It’s fine to have dreams, though I am not sure my son really does (if he does he hasn’t shared them with me). I would definitely like him to feel competent and capable of making his way in the world. Going for rare prizes is going to result in the opposite for most people. Anyway, that part is up to him.
I really agree with this. Run your own race, and if you can retire early, that’s great, because it’s helpful to not have to worry about financial security or health insurance.
@pbcparent your attitude is one I have not run across IRL here. I wonder if it is the extreme of housing costs etc in California that is causing this for you.
To me “elite” means being at the top of your field, whatever that field is. It doesn’t have to do with money in my view, but others might disagree. Certainly there are plenty of traditionally lucrative fields that are not STEM-oriented like business or law, etc.
I maintain that you could be an elite educator too though if you are at the top of the education game.
Personally I’m not worried about my kids being “elite”. I just want them to be happy and able to support themselves. The latter is definitely achievable where I am although there are plenty of jobs that don’t pay a living wage too. Happiness depends on them but I would never ever ever ever try to force my creative, right-brained kids into a STEM box.
The problem with this thinking is that “respect” (like “beauty”, “prestige”, etc.) really is in the eye of the beholder.
There are a bunch of software engineers who I really respect. There are also MDs and professors who I really do not respect.
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I agree, but I am speaking more about social conventions. Unless you’re an entrepreneur who founds a very successful startup, or rise high as an executive, even a well-paying software job just looks like a job. But I have respect for anyone who does a good job at something useful.
There is a little bit of a personal ax to grind, though. I read a lot about first generation college students. That’s not me and by definition it won’t be my kids either. There are lawyers and at least one doctor going back to the turn of the 20th century. I’m doing fine, but basically just on par, and probably of less social significance than my ancestors (which is fine).
So that’s kind of why my ears perk up when people talk about status. I don’t need it, but I also believe it is harder to attain than mere wealth.
Can you expand on where “here” is (roughly speaking)? I am not sure my attitude is even that common in Silicon Valley or if so, people might not be as open about it. I think we out-Keillor Garrison Keillor around here. All the kids are not merely “above average” but they’re all in the top 5%tile. My son is a bright kid with a good sense of humor and once told me something that made me very proud, which is that his friends who get better grades sometimes ask him for advice on what to write about.
If he’s an original thinker, I would like that better than being overscheduled and pushed hard. Unfortunately, he finds all the 5%ers around here a bit daunting and I can see how it wears on him. I do think that he’ll do fine. But if it really has become an “elite-or-bust” world, then maybe he won’t, and the thought frightens me. Is this really such an uncommon perspective where you live?
There have been some posts about software jobs becoming more traditional business and less wild west. It is still possible to have a less traditional and more free for all wild west CS type job, but I’d expect few new grads to choose such paths because of the “elite-or-bust” type chance of success.
For example, I started a website about a personal hobby. I did the programming myself, so my net expenses were <$10/month, which went to hosting and domain name. It is still possible to start a website for <$10/month today, so long as traffic and resource usage are not excessive, and you know how to program (and/or or can use web design SW). I didn’t expect to make any income from it and my website was by no means structured to make much income, yet after a few months my net income from the website was well in to the 6 figures and well above the income earned via my more traditional day job in tech. In most fields, this type of software website/app/startup has an elite-or-bust type structure. Some quickly make millions, some make enough to get by, and the vast majority never have financial success.
CS is unique in that it is easier to work independently and outside of a traditional 9-5 day job structure, if one chooses. Starting a website/app is an extreme example, but there are also many opportunities for short term freelance type projects or other situations in which employee lives and works from whereever they choose and largely chooses how many hours they’d like to work. Choosing to work at a small startup can also have a less traditional feel than working at a large private company.
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I think it’s really hard to develop a website today that fills a need that is not met at least to some degree by an existing service. That’s one of the things that has changed significantly over 25 years. Also, a lot of the action has moved to mobile, but even there, for any give app idea, there are usually several implementations available.
Success at something like that is more likely to come from an understanding of the market than from technical ability. A lot of people can build a website. The question is who’s going to know it’s there and what will bring them back to it if they do find it. There could be some niche applications. Some of my favorite side consulting was in insurance risk analysis, because most software developers don’t like that kind of math, and most people who do risk analysis have a particular set of methods they understand that didn’t cover the requirement. I was able to think out of the box a little bit algorithmically. Even there, it would have come to nothing except that I was working with a person who knew the domain very well. I rarely have ideas for things that most people want. If I built stuff I wanted to see, I would have an audience in the single digits, though I would still do it if I didn’t have my day job.
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I think a lot of people in Silicon Valley have done very well for themselves by risk taking. Sometimes that is by taking risky jobs in tech, but for others it has been by feeding off that success, often by taking a big mortgage to buy property that has gone up hugely in value by being in a booming area.
I wonder if there’s a difference in perception between those who took a risk in their career and those who simply made a financial gamble that paid off? In other words, do people now believe that entrepreneurial success is less feasible or do they just believe that a leveraged gamble on property won’t deliver the same returns in the future?
It’s also very clear that many of the immigrants who moved to Silicon Valley were some of the most talented tech people in the world, and explicitly wanted to compete with the best of the best. That attitude is undoubtedly going to rub off to some extent on their attitudes to child rearing and expectations for their kids.
As my favorite Joan Didion quote says:
“California is a place in which a boom mentality and a sense of Chekhovian loss meet in uneasy suspension; in which the mind is troubled by some buried but ineradicable suspicion that things had better work here, because here, beneath that immense bleached sky, is where we run out of continent.”
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Some career moves aren’t risky at all. If you manage to get employment at Google right after college, you are on your way to a pretty comfortable career though you do have to put up with a lot of internal competition and performance reviews. Even if Google were to go belly up, which seems unlikely in the near future, you have a transferrable resume item. It’s true that people sometimes leave to join startups. This is not all that common, and more likely for those who have already built a financial buffer.
It’s interesting you mention real estate, because a home purchase is indeed a leveraged investment that could go either way and leave you underwater, as it did many people in 2008. However, it’s rarely perceived as risky. People who win one jackpot and put it all into a mortgage on a tiny Eichler in Palo Alto are almost never thinking of downside. Should they? Sound analysis says yes, but experience contradicts it.
I am not an immigrant. My wife is. We have different outlooks. I have siblings who made a few false starts and got up on their feet. If my kids do that, more power to them. They also have older cousins at many different levels of success. If they fall in the middle of that range, I will have done my job as a parent.
But I am pretty sure that I’m a lot less competitive than most parents around here. I am not really sure they are raising entrepreneurs. They want the kids who perform at piano recitals, play a varsity sport, and exude “leadership” whatever that is exactly. I feel like my lackadaisical attitude has produced kids that I appreciate tremendously but who may be viewed as subpar by local metrics.
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Oh, one other observation on why joining a startup isn’t all that risky, though it depends on the startup. This comes from experience in biotechs as well as more conventional software companies. You may join a company that is losing money and will never deliver the big equity award you were hoping for, but assuming it pays a decent salary, it’s still a job, and if it’s venture-funded, it probably has a good enough health coverage plan to entice and retain talent.
It could still go out of business, and many do, but that probably won’t happen immediately. Meanwhile, you are making career contacts who can refer you to the next startup or to a more established employer if your risk curve changes.
It’s true that you are probably going to be underpaid compared to taking the job with a big, established company first. On the other hand, what’s the point of youth if you can’t take chances? Really, the downside is pretty mild and the upside, though infrequent, is much greater.
This is not the same as founding a company or working for nothing with seed funding. However, relatively few of us living in Silicon Valley have taken that route, particularly once we have a family depending on the income. The “risk” thing is part of the mystique, but I think it’s often exaggerated. If you were worried whether you would have a job next month, you probably wouldn’t be driving a Tesla Model X.
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We have always counseled our kids to love what they do no matter what it is, and to be open to change what they want to pursue at any time. Our S evolved from wanting to be a garbage man, to an astronaut, to an architect, then to an engineer. As he started studying CS (which he absolutely loves) we advised him to try out different job prospects through summer internships. His summers internships ranged from an early-stage startup to an SV behemoth and a few in between. As he neared graduation, he shared that he was drawn to the startup culture. To him startups represented the leading edge, fast paced, all hands on deck, extended family that he loves. Our advise to him was that perhaps the best time to try a startup is right out of college (no family responsibilities). So, that’s what he’s doing, the typical Stanford to startup transition, but he does not really see it as very risky right now. That may change with the economy, but with so many options I think that the risks are relatively low and the rewards insanely high.
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I’m in North Carolina. We have gobs and gobs of transplants coming here from California and the Northeast.
We want our kids to do well and there are some spots of high pressure high schools but by and large it is much more chill here. I went back and read the first couple of posts in this thread which asked which careers have become “elite or bust”. I would say that “elite or bust” mentality is not so much a thing here in NC. People from NC do go on to be “elite” in many fields and many who do so go to our great state publics like UNC, NC State, UNC School of the Arts, App State, and others. Kizzmekia Corbett, one of the leading COVID researchers is from NC, went to public high school right down the road from me and then on to UNC.
But there are plenty of people in NC making a living in the arts, for example, who aren’t at a Beyoncé level but aren’t just fiddling around in their garage either. Lots of well respected musicians and artists and crafters who make a comfortable living here and aren’t living in mom and dad’s basement. There are lots of entrepreneurs of all kinds, restaurateurs, fashion designers, writers, as well as scientists and tech folks. None of this is “elite or bust”. It’s work hard and keep trying and you will succeed here.
Your posts ring very very California to me. There are a LOT of people moving to NC to escape that. (Not trying to denigrate CA. I lived in LA for a brief period.)
I’m from the Northeast but yes, I have a very Bay Area perspective.
I know very little about NC. I have been to the Outer Banks, which are beautiful. I used to read about Research Triangle a lot in the 90s, though oddly not so much now. Life is full of tradeoffs and I am very happy in the Bay Area. My house is little, old, and absurdly expensive but it’s enough for me. As long as someone else wants to buy it, it’s money in the bank.
It’s probably fortunate that my son is a bit disenchanted with Silicon Valley himself, since it’s a struggle to stay here. My daughter will have to figure that one out for herself. I didn’t start the “elite or bust” topic but I am curious how much truth there is to it.
Re the violinist comment about it being a bust to play music on the side if you didn’t succeed as a concert violinist.
That reminds me of Joe Kwon, the cellist for the Avett Brothers. He calls himself a mediocre cello player but he has ended up playing on some of the biggest stages all over the world. He was working at IBM and hated it too and left to join the Avetts. The Avett Brothers: Joe Kwon - My Home, NC
But even if you don’t have the good fortune to hitch a ride on a rising star there’s usually a way to make a living doing something you like. If you want to be a concert violinist but you don’t quite have the chops maybe you become a violin teacher or a school music teacher or a violin maker or have a store that sells violins or you work in booking or promotions or sound engineering or at a record label or at a venue. To me that’s not a “bust”. You are just leveraging your talents where they will succeed.
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